Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 22/08, 09:15

Prediction: University NSW vs Manly Utd

Team pages: University NSW · Manly Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

University NSW1.32

Manly Utd1.66

1X2

30% 26% 45%

University NSW Draw Manly Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

University NSW 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWLLLD

Manly Utd 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDWDWL

Head-to-head

University NSW 0–1 Manly Utd (1 last)

Manly Utd2-0University NSW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · University NSW 1454 · Manly Utd 1541

	University NSW	Draw	Manly Utd
Our model	29%	26%	44%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manly Utd (rating 1454 vs 1541).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	University NSW	Manly Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:24 +5’	3.00	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · University NSW 0–0–1 Manly Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	2-0 HT 1-0	University NSW

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	28	20	4	4	62	33	64
2	Sydney United 58	28	19	3	6	41	20	60
3	Marconi Stallions	28	18	4	6	48	21	58
4	Sutherland Sharks	28	13	4	11	43	35	43
5	SD Raiders	28	11	5	12	42	47	38
6	Manly Utd	28	10	8	10	33	35	38
7	Rockdale Ilinden FC	28	11	4	13	43	42	37
8	Sydney FC U21	28	10	7	11	35	41	37
9	St George City FA	28	10	7	11	27	40	37
10	NWS Spirit FC	28	11	4	13	35	37	37
11	Blacktown City	28	9	8	11	42	42	35
12	Wollongong Wolves	28	10	5	13	32	39	35
13	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	28	10	5	13	52	45	35
14	University NSW	28	9	5	14	38	45	32
15	St George Saints	28	7	3	18	27	49	24
16	Sydney Olympic	28	6	4	18	31	60	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	University NSW	Manly Utd
Sydney Olympic	1-3 L	4-0 W
Western Sydney Wanderers U21	1-2 L	3-3 D
NWS Spirit FC	3-1 W	0-4 L
Sydney FC U21	3-2 W	0-0 D
Sutherland Sharks	1-3 L	2-1 W
Marconi Stallions	0-1 L	3-1 W
St George Saints	1-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Manly Utd (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

University NSW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
08/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
01/08	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
25/07	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-4	9	1	L
18/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
11/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
04/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
27/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	12	3	L
21/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
13/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-4	6	5	L

Manly Utd

DWDWWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-3	0-4	8	1	L
08/08	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	1	1	W
02/08	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
24/07	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
17/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
04/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
27/06	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-3	2	4	D
20/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
12/06	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in University NSW vs Manly Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Manly Utd win (45%). Probabilities: University NSW 30%, draw 26%, Manly Utd 45%.

How many goals are expected in University NSW vs Manly Utd?

The model expects 2.98 goals (University NSW 1.32 · Manly Utd 1.66), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in University NSW vs Manly Utd?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.