Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 22/08, 10:30

Prediction: St George Saints vs Blacktown City

Team pages: St George Saints · Blacktown City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

St George Saints1.29

Blacktown City1.79

1X2

27% 24% 48%

St George Saints Draw Blacktown City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St George Saints 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDLDW

Blacktown City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWWLD

Head-to-head

St George Saints 1–1–4 Blacktown City (6 last)

Blacktown City2-1St George Saints
St George Saints3-2Blacktown City
Blacktown City3-2St George Saints
Blacktown City3-0St George Saints
St George Saints0-0Blacktown City
Blacktown City2-0St George Saints

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St George Saints 1448 · Blacktown City 1530

	St George Saints	Draw	Blacktown City
Our model	27%	25%	48%
Market	28%	24%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blacktown City (rating 1448 vs 1530).
H2H favours Blacktown City: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St George Saints	Blacktown City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:47 +11’	3.25	3.80	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St George Saints 1–1–4 Blacktown City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	2-1 HT 1-0	St George Saints
27/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George Saints	3-2 HT 2-1	Blacktown City
13/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	3-2 HT 1-2	St George Saints
02/06/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	3-0 HT 1-0	St George Saints
24/02/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George Saints	0-0 HT 0-0	Blacktown City
08/06/14 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	2-0	St George Saints

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	28	20	4	4	62	33	64
2	Sydney United 58	28	19	3	6	41	20	60
3	Marconi Stallions	28	18	4	6	48	21	58
4	Sutherland Sharks	28	13	4	11	43	35	43
5	SD Raiders	28	11	5	12	42	47	38
6	Manly Utd	28	10	8	10	33	35	38
7	Rockdale Ilinden FC	28	11	4	13	43	42	37
8	Sydney FC U21	28	10	7	11	35	41	37
9	St George City FA	28	10	7	11	27	40	37
10	NWS Spirit FC	28	11	4	13	35	37	37
11	Blacktown City	28	9	8	11	42	42	35
12	Wollongong Wolves	28	10	5	13	32	39	35
13	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	28	10	5	13	52	45	35
14	University NSW	28	9	5	14	38	45	32
15	St George Saints	28	7	3	18	27	49	24
16	Sydney Olympic	28	6	4	18	31	60	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St George Saints	Blacktown City
Apia L Tigers	0-0 D	1-3 L
SD Raiders	2-3 L	3-1 W
Sydney FC U21	0-0 D	4-2 W
NWS Spirit FC	1-3 L	1-3 L
Marconi Stallions	0-2 L	0-2 L
University NSW	4-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St George Saints

WLLLLLDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
08/08	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
01/08	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
25/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-3	1-6	4	5	L
11/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
05/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
27/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
20/06	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
13/06	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	2	5	W

Blacktown City

WLLDWWWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
08/08	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
02/08	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	4-2	4	0	W
26/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
19/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	0	W
11/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
05/07	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
21/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
13/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St George Saints vs Blacktown City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Blacktown City win (48%). Probabilities: St George Saints 27%, draw 24%, Blacktown City 48%.

How many goals are expected in St George Saints vs Blacktown City?

The model expects 3.08 goals (St George Saints 1.29 · Blacktown City 1.79), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St George Saints vs Blacktown City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.