Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Blacktown City vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Team pages: Blacktown City · Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Blacktown City2.13

Western Sydney Wanderers U211.46

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Blacktown City Draw Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Blacktown City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Blacktown City 3–2–1 Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (6 last)

Western Sydney Wanderers U213-3Blacktown City
Blacktown City1-0Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U210-4Blacktown City
Blacktown City3-0Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U213-0Blacktown City
Blacktown City0-0Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blacktown City 1499 · Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1449

	Blacktown City	Draw	Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blacktown City (rating 1499 vs 1449).
H2H favours Blacktown City: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blacktown City	Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
09:15 +8’	1.73	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blacktown City 3–2–1 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	3-3 HT 2-2	Blacktown City
17/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	1-0 HT 0-0	Western Sydney Wanderers U21
04/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	0-4 HT 0-2	Blacktown City
28/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	3-0 HT 0-0	Western Sydney Wanderers U21
21/04/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	3-0 HT 3-0	Blacktown City
28/05/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	0-0 HT 0-0	Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	29	20	5	4	62	33	65
2	Sydney United 58	29	19	4	6	41	20	61
3	Marconi Stallions	29	19	4	6	49	21	61
4	Sutherland Sharks	29	14	4	11	45	36	46
5	Manly Utd	29	11	8	10	35	35	41
6	Sydney FC U21	29	11	7	11	37	42	40
7	NWS Spirit FC	29	12	4	13	36	37	40
8	SD Raiders	29	11	5	13	42	48	38
9	Wollongong Wolves	29	11	5	13	35	39	38
10	Rockdale Ilinden FC	29	11	4	14	44	44	37
11	St George City FA	29	10	7	12	28	42	37
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	29	10	5	14	52	48	35
13	Blacktown City	29	9	8	12	42	43	35
14	University NSW	29	9	5	15	38	47	32
15	St George Saints	29	8	3	18	28	49	27
16	Sydney Olympic	29	6	4	19	31	61	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blacktown City	Western Sydney Wanderers U21
St George Saints	0-1 L	1-2 L
University NSW	0-0 D	2-1 W
NWS Spirit FC	1-3 L	4-0 W
Wollongong Wolves	2-0 W	0-3 L
SD Raiders	3-1 W	0-3 L
Marconi Stallions	0-2 L	0-3 L
Apia L Tigers	1-3 L	3-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Blacktown City (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blacktown City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
16/08	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
08/08	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
02/08	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	4-2	4	0	W
26/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
19/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	0	W
11/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
05/07	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	7	2	L

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
15/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
08/08	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
01/08	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
25/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	0	W
18/07	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-2	3-5	3	4	L
12/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
04/07	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
27/06	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-2	3-3	3	4	D
20/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-3	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blacktown City vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blacktown City win (52%). Probabilities: Blacktown City 52%, draw 23%, Western Sydney Wanderers U21 25%.

How many goals are expected in Blacktown City vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Blacktown City 2.13 · Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1.46), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Blacktown City vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.