Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Wollongong Wolves vs Manly Utd

Team pages: Wollongong Wolves · Manly Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Wollongong Wolves1.4

Manly Utd1.58

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Wollongong Wolves Draw Manly Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wollongong Wolves 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLWW

Manly Utd 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWDWLW

Head-to-head

Wollongong Wolves 3–3 Manly Utd (6 last)

Manly Utd0-1Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves2-0Manly Utd
Manly Utd6-0Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves1-2Manly Utd
Manly Utd2-1Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves3-1Manly Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wollongong Wolves 1457 · Manly Utd 1538

	Wollongong Wolves	Draw	Manly Utd
Our model	33%	27%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manly Utd (rating 1457 vs 1538).
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wollongong Wolves	Manly Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:17 +6’	2.75	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wollongong Wolves 3–0–3 Manly Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Wollongong Wolves
19/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Wollongong Wolves	2-0 HT 0-0	Manly Utd
06/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	6-0 HT 2-0	Wollongong Wolves
25/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Wollongong Wolves	1-2 HT 1-1	Manly Utd
18/05/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	2-1 HT 1-0	Wollongong Wolves
06/08/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Wollongong Wolves	3-1 HT 2-0	Manly Utd

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	29	20	5	4	62	33	65
2	Sydney United 58	29	19	4	6	41	20	61
3	Marconi Stallions	29	19	4	6	49	21	61
4	Sutherland Sharks	29	14	4	11	45	36	46
5	Manly Utd	29	11	8	10	35	35	41
6	Sydney FC U21	29	11	7	11	37	42	40
7	NWS Spirit FC	29	12	4	13	36	37	40
8	SD Raiders	29	11	5	13	42	48	38
9	Wollongong Wolves	29	11	5	13	35	39	38
10	Rockdale Ilinden FC	29	11	4	14	44	44	37
11	St George City FA	29	10	7	12	28	42	37
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	29	10	5	14	52	48	35
13	Blacktown City	29	9	8	12	42	43	35
14	University NSW	29	9	5	15	38	47	32
15	St George Saints	29	8	3	18	28	49	27
16	Sydney Olympic	29	6	4	19	31	61	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wollongong Wolves	Manly Utd
Western Sydney Wanderers U21	3-0 W	3-3 D
Rockdale Ilinden FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sutherland Sharks	1-2 L	2-1 W
SD Raiders	2-3 L	1-0 W
Sydney Olympic	2-3 L	4-0 W
NWS Spirit FC	0-2 L	0-4 L
Sydney FC U21	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Manly Utd (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wollongong Wolves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/08	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
09/08	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-2	9	3	L
01/08	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/07	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
18/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	2-3	3	8	L
11/07	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-2	2-3	1	0	L
05/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	3-3	8	0	D
27/06	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
21/06	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-2	2-3	4	6	L

Manly Utd

WDWWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	10	0	W
15/08	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-3	0-4	8	1	L
08/08	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	1	1	W
02/08	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
24/07	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
17/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
04/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
27/06	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-3	2	4	D
20/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wollongong Wolves vs Manly Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Manly Utd win (41%). Probabilities: Wollongong Wolves 33%, draw 26%, Manly Utd 41%.

How many goals are expected in Wollongong Wolves vs Manly Utd?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Wollongong Wolves 1.4 · Manly Utd 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wollongong Wolves vs Manly Utd?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.