Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Rockdale Ilinden FC vs University NSW

Team pages: Rockdale Ilinden FC · University NSW

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Rockdale Ilinden FC1.87

University NSW1.15

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Rockdale Ilinden FC Draw University NSW

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Rockdale Ilinden FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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University NSW 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Rockdale Ilinden FC 0–1 University NSW (1 last)

University NSW2-0Rockdale Ilinden FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rockdale Ilinden FC 1470 · University NSW 1467

	Rockdale Ilinden FC	Draw	University NSW
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	54%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rockdale Ilinden FC	University NSW
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.8	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
09:20 +4’	1.67	3.80	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Rockdale Ilinden FC 0–0–1 University NSW

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	University NSW	2-0 HT 0-0	Rockdale Ilinden FC

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	29	20	5	4	62	33	65
2	Sydney United 58	29	19	4	6	41	20	61
3	Marconi Stallions	29	19	4	6	49	21	61
4	Sutherland Sharks	29	14	4	11	45	36	46
5	Manly Utd	29	11	8	10	35	35	41
6	Sydney FC U21	29	11	7	11	37	42	40
7	NWS Spirit FC	29	12	4	13	36	37	40
8	SD Raiders	29	11	5	13	42	48	38
9	Wollongong Wolves	29	11	5	13	35	39	38
10	Rockdale Ilinden FC	29	11	4	14	44	44	37
11	St George City FA	29	10	7	12	28	42	37
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	29	10	5	14	52	48	35
13	Blacktown City	29	9	8	12	42	43	35
14	University NSW	29	9	5	15	38	47	32
15	St George Saints	29	8	3	18	28	49	27
16	Sydney Olympic	29	6	4	19	31	61	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rockdale Ilinden FC	University NSW
Sydney FC U21	1-2 L	3-2 W
St George City FA	0-1 L	2-0 W
Manly Utd	1-1 D	0-2 L
Sutherland Sharks	1-3 L	1-3 L
NWS Spirit FC	1-1 D	3-1 W
Apia L Tigers	2-0 W	1-4 L
Sydney Olympic	4-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rockdale Ilinden FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-2	9	6	L
16/08	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	12	4	L
02/08	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
26/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	6	4	L
18/07	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-1	6-1	1	5	W
12/07	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
05/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
28/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	4-0	6	1	W

University NSW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
16/08	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
08/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
01/08	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
25/07	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-4	9	1	L
18/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
11/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
04/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
27/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	12	3	L
21/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rockdale Ilinden FC vs University NSW?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rockdale Ilinden FC win (53%). Probabilities: Rockdale Ilinden FC 53%, draw 24%, University NSW 23%.

How many goals are expected in Rockdale Ilinden FC vs University NSW?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Rockdale Ilinden FC 1.87 · University NSW 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Rockdale Ilinden FC vs University NSW?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.