Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 17/07, 12:00
Prediction: Nepean FC vs Fraser Park
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.66Total
Nepean FC1.55
Fraser Park2.11
1X2
Nepean FC
Draw
Fraser Park
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nepean FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Fraser Park
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nepean FC
1–3–2
Fraser Park
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nepean FC 1454 · Fraser Park 1500
| Nepean FC | Draw | Fraser Park | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 23% | 50% |
| Market | 28% | 22% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fraser Park (rating 1454 vs 1500).
- H2H favours Fraser Park: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nepean FC | Fraser Park | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.3 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 3.4 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nepean FC 1–3–2 Fraser Park
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Fraser Park | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Nepean FC |
| 16/08/25 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Fraser Park | 5-2 HT 2-1 | Nepean FC |
| 03/05/25 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Nepean FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Fraser Park |
| 18/03/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Nepean FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Fraser Park |
| 09/06/23 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Nepean FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fraser Park |
| 10/10/20 Australia New South Wales League 4 | Fraser Park | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Nepean FC |
Standings · Australia New South Wales League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mounties Wanderers | 21 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 74 | 21 | 53 |
| 2 | Parramatta Eagles | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 36 |
| 3 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 36 | 35 |
| 4 | Dunbar Rovers FC | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 30 | 34 |
| 5 | Fraser Park | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 33 |
| 6 | Western Rage | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 43 | 48 | 32 |
| 7 | Sydney University | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 29 | 31 |
| 8 | Hawkesbury City SC | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 53 | 30 |
| 9 | South Coast Flame FC | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 28 | 27 | 30 |
| 10 | Central Coast United FC | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 34 | 29 |
| 11 | Nepean FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 45 | 27 |
| 12 | Inner West Hawks | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 37 | 25 |
| 13 | Gladesville Ryde Magic | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 50 | 25 |
| 14 | Bankstown United FC | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 40 | 21 |
| 15 | Camden Tigers SC | 22 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 61 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nepean FC | Fraser Park |
|---|---|---|
| Mounties Wanderers | 2-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Parramatta Eagles | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Dunbar Rovers FC | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Bankstown United FC | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Inner West Hawks | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Hawkesbury City SC | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nepean FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-2 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
Fraser Park
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 12/06 | Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 27/05 | Sydney Olympic Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nepean FC vs Fraser Park?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Fraser Park win (50%). Probabilities: Nepean FC 28%, draw 23%, Fraser Park 50%.
How many goals are expected in Nepean FC vs Fraser Park?
The model expects 3.66 goals (Nepean FC 1.55 · Fraser Park 2.11), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nepean FC vs Fraser Park?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.