Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 24/07, 12:00

Prediction: Sydney University vs Mounties Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

Sydney University1.05

Mounties Wanderers2.94

1X2

10% 15% 75%

Sydney University Draw Mounties Wanderers

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Sydney University 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDWDWW

Mounties Wanderers 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Sydney University 0–3 Mounties Wanderers (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sydney University 1521 · Mounties Wanderers 1605

	Sydney University	Draw	Mounties Wanderers
Our model	10%	15%	75%
Market	10%	15%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mounties Wanderers (rating 1521 vs 1605).
H2H favours Mounties Wanderers: 3-0-0.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sydney University	Mounties Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	1.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

19.00

X6.00

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.98

2 (-2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:53 +13’	9.00	6.00	1.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney University 0–0–3 Mounties Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 2	Mounties Wanderers	3-2 HT 0-0	Sydney University
17/08/24 Australia New South Wales League 2	Sydney University	1-3 HT 1-1	Mounties Wanderers
28/05/24 Australia New South Wales League 2	Mounties Wanderers	4-0 HT 1-0	Sydney University

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mounties Wanderers	22	18	2	2	80	22	56
2	Parramatta Eagles	22	12	3	7	51	33	39
3	Fraser Park	22	10	6	6	40	27	36
4	Bonnyrigg White Eagles	22	11	3	8	40	36	36
5	Sydney University	23	10	4	9	38	30	34
6	Dunbar Rovers FC	22	10	4	8	38	30	34
7	Central Coast United FC	22	9	5	8	35	35	32
8	Western Rage	21	9	5	7	43	48	32
9	South Coast Flame FC	22	8	7	7	28	27	31
10	Hawkesbury City SC	21	9	3	9	39	53	30
11	Nepean FC	22	8	3	11	39	50	27
12	Inner West Hawks	23	7	4	12	33	41	25
13	Gladesville Ryde Magic	23	8	1	14	36	56	25
14	Bankstown United FC	22	5	6	11	26	43	21
15	Camden Tigers SC	23	1	6	16	29	64	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sydney University	Mounties Wanderers
Camden Tigers SC	3-1 W	6-0 W
Fraser Park	2-0 W	4-1 W
Western Rage	1-1 D	4-1 W
Parramatta Eagles	0-3 L	6-0 W
South Coast Flame FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Gladesville Ryde Magic	0-1 L	6-1 W
Bonnyrigg White Eagles	1-2 L	7-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mounties Wanderers (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sydney University

LLWLDDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/07	Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2	3-0	8-0	–	–	W
03/07	Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
27/06	Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/06	Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2	2-0	2-2	5	8	D
13/06	Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/06	Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
30/05	South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2	2-1	3-2	8	1	W
23/05	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/05	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	1-2	5	6	L

Mounties Wanderers

DWWLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	6-1	7	0	W
10/07	Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2	3-0	6-0	6	1	W
03/07	Nepean FC Australia New South Wales League 2	2-0	4-2	–	–	W
27/06	Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/06	Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	4-0	6-0	3	2	W
12/06	Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	4-1	4	1	W
05/06	Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
30/05	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	3-0	7-0	–	–	W
22/05	Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2	3-1	4-1	5	2	W
17/05	South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-1	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sydney University vs Mounties Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mounties Wanderers win (75%). Probabilities: Sydney University 10%, draw 15%, Mounties Wanderers 75%.

How many goals are expected in Sydney University vs Mounties Wanderers?

The model expects 3.99 goals (Sydney University 1.05 · Mounties Wanderers 2.94), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sydney University vs Mounties Wanderers?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.