Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Apia L Tigers vs St George City FA

Team pages: Apia L Tigers · St George City FA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Apia L Tigers2

St George City FA1.03

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Apia L Tigers Draw St George City FA

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Apia L Tigers 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWDWD

St George City FA 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Apia L Tigers 3–1–2 St George City FA (6 last)

St George City FA2-1Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers1-0St George City FA
St George City FA0-0Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers4-1St George City FA
St George City FA1-0Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers2-1St George City FA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Apia L Tigers 1560 · St George City FA 1525

	Apia L Tigers	Draw	St George City FA
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Apia L Tigers: 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Apia L Tigers	St George City FA
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.2	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 02:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.53▼	Bet365 1.53
X	3.80 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.45 ★
2	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:18 +6’	1.57	3.80	4.75
18:00 +6’	1.50▼	3.90▲	5.25▲
20:31 +8’	1.44▼	4.10▲	5.75▲
02:38 +9’	1.53▲	4.00▼	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:24 +1’	1.50	4.30	4.69
10:33	1.52▲	4.42▲	4.83▲
11:32	1.52	4.41▼	4.83
02:45 +2’	1.51▼	4.45▲	4.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Apia L Tigers 3–1–2 St George City FA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George City FA	2-1 HT 2-0	Apia L Tigers
23/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	1-0 HT 0-0	St George City FA
10/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George City FA	0-0 HT 0-0	Apia L Tigers
12/06/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	4-1 HT 3-1	St George City FA
06/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George City FA	1-0 HT 0-0	Apia L Tigers
27/08/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	2-1 HT 2-1	St George City FA

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	29	20	5	4	62	33	65
2	Sydney United 58	29	19	4	6	41	20	61
3	Marconi Stallions	29	19	4	6	49	21	61
4	Sutherland Sharks	29	14	4	11	45	36	46
5	Manly Utd	29	11	8	10	35	35	41
6	Sydney FC U21	29	11	7	11	37	42	40
7	NWS Spirit FC	29	12	4	13	36	37	40
8	SD Raiders	29	11	5	13	42	48	38
9	Wollongong Wolves	29	11	5	13	35	39	38
10	Rockdale Ilinden FC	29	11	4	14	44	44	37
11	St George City FA	29	10	7	12	28	42	37
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	29	10	5	14	52	48	35
13	Blacktown City	29	9	8	12	42	43	35
14	University NSW	29	9	5	15	38	47	32
15	St George Saints	29	8	3	18	28	49	27
16	Sydney Olympic	29	6	4	19	31	61	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Apia L Tigers	St George City FA
Sydney United 58	0-0 D	1-0 W
SD Raiders	3-1 W	1-3 L
University NSW	4-1 W	0-2 L
Sydney FC U21	2-1 W	2-0 W
Sutherland Sharks	2-3 L	1-2 L
Rockdale Ilinden FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
Blacktown City	3-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Apia L Tigers

WLLWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
15/08	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	3-0	3-1	4	8	W
08/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
25/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	1	W
18/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-3	5-3	9	4	W
11/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
04/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-3	12	4	L
28/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
21/06	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	2	W

St George City FA

WLDLLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
14/08	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	0	W
08/08	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
02/08	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
25/07	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/07	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	2	0	L
11/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
05/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-3	3	0	D
27/06	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-3	3	0	L
20/06	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Apia L Tigers vs St George City FA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Apia L Tigers win (59%). Probabilities: Apia L Tigers 59%, draw 23%, St George City FA 18%.

How many goals are expected in Apia L Tigers vs St George City FA?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Apia L Tigers 2 · St George City FA 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Apia L Tigers vs St George City FA?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.