Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 15/08, 09:00

Prediction: Manly Utd vs NWS Spirit FC

Team pages: Manly Utd · NWS Spirit FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Manly Utd1.5

NWS Spirit FC1.18

1X2

44% 26% 29%

Manly Utd Draw NWS Spirit FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Manly Utd 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWDWDW

NWS Spirit FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWLLLW

Head-to-head

Manly Utd 1–5 NWS Spirit FC (6 last)

NWS Spirit FC2-1Manly Utd
NWS Spirit FC2-1Manly Utd
Manly Utd0-1NWS Spirit FC
NWS Spirit FC4-2Manly Utd
Manly Utd3-2NWS Spirit FC
Manly Utd0-2NWS Spirit FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Manly Utd 1543 · NWS Spirit FC 1490

	Manly Utd	Draw	NWS Spirit FC
Our model	44%	28%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manly Utd (rating 1543 vs 1490).
H2H favours NWS Spirit FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Manly Utd	NWS Spirit FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	1.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:16 +9’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Manly Utd 1–0–5 NWS Spirit FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Manly Utd
05/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Manly Utd
21/03/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	NWS Spirit FC
03/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	4-2 HT 2-1	Manly Utd
26/04/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	3-2 HT 2-1	NWS Spirit FC
01/07/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	0-2 HT 0-2	NWS Spirit FC

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	27	19	4	4	59	32	61
2	Sydney United 58	27	18	3	6	39	19	57
3	Marconi Stallions	27	17	4	6	47	21	55
4	Sutherland Sharks	27	13	4	10	43	34	43
5	SD Raiders	27	11	5	11	41	44	38
6	Manly Utd	27	10	8	9	33	31	38
7	Rockdale Ilinden FC	27	11	4	12	42	40	37
8	Sydney FC U21	27	10	7	10	35	39	37
9	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	27	10	5	12	51	43	35
10	Blacktown City	27	9	7	11	42	42	34
11	NWS Spirit FC	27	10	4	13	31	37	34
12	St George City FA	27	9	7	11	25	40	34
13	Wollongong Wolves	27	9	5	13	30	38	32
14	University NSW	27	9	4	14	38	45	31
15	Sydney Olympic	27	6	4	17	30	58	22
16	St George Saints	27	6	3	18	25	48	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Manly Utd	NWS Spirit FC
Rockdale Ilinden FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sydney Olympic	4-0 W	3-0 W
Sydney FC U21	0-0 D	0-1 L
Western Sydney Wanderers U21	3-3 D	0-4 L
St George Saints	2-0 W	3-1 W
Sydney United 58	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Manly Utd (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Manly Utd

LDWDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	1	1	W
02/08	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
24/07	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
17/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
04/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
27/06	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-3	2	4	D
20/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
12/06	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
06/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L

NWS Spirit FC

LWLWDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
02/08	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
25/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-4	8	0	L
18/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
11/07	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
05/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	1	1	D
27/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	11	3	W
20/06	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
13/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
05/06	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Manly Utd vs NWS Spirit FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Manly Utd win (44%). Probabilities: Manly Utd 44%, draw 26%, NWS Spirit FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Manly Utd vs NWS Spirit FC?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Manly Utd 1.5 · NWS Spirit FC 1.18), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Manly Utd vs NWS Spirit FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.