Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 15/08, 10:00

Prediction: Apia L Tigers vs SD Raiders

Team pages: Apia L Tigers · SD Raiders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Apia L Tigers2.03

SD Raiders1.15

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Apia L Tigers Draw SD Raiders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Apia L Tigers 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWDD

SD Raiders 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Apia L Tigers 1–1–0 SD Raiders (2 last)

SD Raiders2-3Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers1-1SD Raiders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Apia L Tigers 1584 · SD Raiders 1537

	Apia L Tigers	Draw	SD Raiders
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	58%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1584 vs 1537).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Apia L Tigers	SD Raiders
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.4	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.33

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.40▼	Pinn 1.45
X	4.33 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.66 ★
2	4.50 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.38

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:16 +9’	1.50	4.33	4.50
08:37 +2’	1.55▲	4.33	4.20▼
09:49 +3’	1.40▼	4.50▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:51 +1’	1.45	4.66	5.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Apia L Tigers 1–1–0 SD Raiders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	SD Raiders	2-3 HT 2-1	Apia L Tigers
30/05/17 Australia FFA Cup	Apia L Tigers	1-1 HT 0-1	SD Raiders

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	27	19	4	4	59	32	61
2	Sydney United 58	27	18	3	6	39	19	57
3	Marconi Stallions	27	17	4	6	47	21	55
4	Sutherland Sharks	27	13	4	10	43	34	43
5	SD Raiders	27	11	5	11	41	44	38
6	Manly Utd	27	10	8	9	33	31	38
7	Rockdale Ilinden FC	27	11	4	12	42	40	37
8	Sydney FC U21	27	10	7	10	35	39	37
9	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	27	10	5	12	51	43	35
10	Blacktown City	27	9	7	11	42	42	34
11	NWS Spirit FC	27	10	4	13	31	37	34
12	St George City FA	27	9	7	11	25	40	34
13	Wollongong Wolves	27	9	5	13	30	38	32
14	University NSW	27	9	4	14	38	45	31
15	Sydney Olympic	27	6	4	17	30	58	22
16	St George Saints	27	6	3	18	25	48	21

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Apia L Tigers	SD Raiders
St George Saints	0-0 D	3-2 W
Western Sydney Wanderers U21	5-3 W	3-0 W
Sydney FC U21	2-1 W	0-1 L
Blacktown City	3-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Apia L Tigers

WLLWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Sydney United 58 Australia Cup	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
08/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
02/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
25/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	1	W
18/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-3	5-3	9	4	W
14/07	Peninsula Power Australia Cup	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
11/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
04/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-3	12	4	L
28/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
21/06	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	2	W

SD Raiders

WLLLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Macarthur FC Australia Cup	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
08/08	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	7	W
01/08	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
25/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-2	3-2	4	8	W
14/07	Rochedale Rovers Australia Cup	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
11/07	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
04/07	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
30/06	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
27/06	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	3-1	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Apia L Tigers vs SD Raiders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Apia L Tigers win (57%). Probabilities: Apia L Tigers 57%, draw 22%, SD Raiders 21%.

How many goals are expected in Apia L Tigers vs SD Raiders?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Apia L Tigers 2.03 · SD Raiders 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Apia L Tigers vs SD Raiders?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.