Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 08/08, 09:30

Prediction: NWS Spirit FC vs Blacktown City

Team pages: NWS Spirit FC · Blacktown City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

NWS Spirit FC1.4

Blacktown City1.31

1X2

39% 27% 34%

NWS Spirit FC Draw Blacktown City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NWS Spirit FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDWLLL

Blacktown City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDWWWW

Head-to-head

NWS Spirit FC 4–2 Blacktown City (6 last)

Blacktown City1-0NWS Spirit FC
NWS Spirit FC4-1Blacktown City
Blacktown City0-4NWS Spirit FC
NWS Spirit FC4-2Blacktown City
Blacktown City3-1NWS Spirit FC
NWS Spirit FC3-2Blacktown City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NWS Spirit FC 1449 · Blacktown City 1542

	NWS Spirit FC	Draw	Blacktown City
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blacktown City (rating 1449 vs 1542).
H2H favours NWS Spirit FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NWS Spirit FC	Blacktown City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +11’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NWS Spirit FC 4–0–2 Blacktown City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	1-0 HT 1-0	NWS Spirit FC
31/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	4-1 HT 2-1	Blacktown City
15/02/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	0-4 HT 0-1	NWS Spirit FC
10/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	4-2 HT 4-0	Blacktown City
04/05/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Blacktown City	3-1 HT 2-1	NWS Spirit FC
03/06/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	NWS Spirit FC	3-2 HT 3-0	Blacktown City

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	26	19	3	4	59	32	60
2	Marconi Stallions	26	17	4	5	46	18	55
3	Sydney United 58	26	17	3	6	37	18	54
4	Sutherland Sharks	26	13	3	10	42	33	42
5	Rockdale Ilinden FC	26	11	4	11	42	39	37
6	Sydney FC U21	26	10	6	10	34	38	36
7	SD Raiders	26	10	5	11	38	44	35
8	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	26	10	5	11	51	40	35
9	Manly Utd	26	9	8	9	30	30	35
10	Blacktown City	26	9	7	10	41	39	34
11	Wollongong Wolves	26	9	5	12	29	36	32
12	University NSW	26	9	4	13	37	42	31
13	NWS Spirit FC	26	9	4	13	28	36	31
14	St George City FA	26	8	7	11	24	40	31
15	St George Saints	26	6	2	18	25	48	20
16	Sydney Olympic	26	5	4	17	27	57	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NWS Spirit FC	Blacktown City
Sydney United 58	0-2 L	0-0 D
Rockdale Ilinden FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Wollongong Wolves	2-0 W	2-0 W
St George City FA	0-1 L	3-0 W
Sydney FC U21	0-1 L	4-2 W
Apia L Tigers	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Blacktown City (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NWS Spirit FC

LLWLWDWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
25/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-4	8	0	L
18/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
11/07	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
05/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	1	1	D
27/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	11	3	W
20/06	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
13/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
05/06	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
30/05	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L

Blacktown City

DLWLLDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	4-2	4	0	W
26/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
19/07	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	0	W
11/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
05/07	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/06	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
21/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
13/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
07/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
30/05	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NWS Spirit FC vs Blacktown City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NWS Spirit FC win (39%). Probabilities: NWS Spirit FC 39%, draw 27%, Blacktown City 34%.

How many goals are expected in NWS Spirit FC vs Blacktown City?

The model expects 2.71 goals (NWS Spirit FC 1.4 · Blacktown City 1.31), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NWS Spirit FC vs Blacktown City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.