Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 08/08, 10:30

Prediction: St George Saints vs Apia L Tigers

Team pages: St George Saints · Apia L Tigers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

St George Saints1.12

Apia L Tigers2.5

1X2

15% 18% 67%

St George Saints Draw Apia L Tigers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

St George Saints 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Apia L Tigers 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWWW

Head-to-head

St George Saints 1–2–3 Apia L Tigers (6 last)

Apia L Tigers2-1St George Saints
St George Saints2-3Apia L Tigers
Apia L Tigers3-3St George Saints
Apia L Tigers5-0St George Saints
St George Saints2-2Apia L Tigers
St George Saints1-0Apia L Tigers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St George Saints 1407 · Apia L Tigers 1596

	St George Saints	Draw	Apia L Tigers
Our model	14%	19%	67%
Market	15%	18%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1407 vs 1596).
H2H favours Apia L Tigers: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St George Saints	Apia L Tigers
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	3.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.00

X5.00

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:12 +3’	6.00	5.00	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St George Saints 1–2–3 Apia L Tigers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	2-1 HT 0-0	St George Saints
28/06/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George Saints	2-3 HT 1-2	Apia L Tigers
15/03/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	3-3 HT 0-1	St George Saints
29/06/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Apia L Tigers	5-0 HT 3-0	St George Saints
23/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	St George Saints	2-2 HT 2-0	Apia L Tigers
21/05/19 Australia FFA Cup	St George Saints	1-0 HT 0-0	Apia L Tigers

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Apia L Tigers	26	19	3	4	59	32	60
2	Marconi Stallions	26	17	4	5	46	18	55
3	Sydney United 58	26	17	3	6	37	18	54
4	Sutherland Sharks	26	13	3	10	42	33	42
5	Rockdale Ilinden FC	26	11	4	11	42	39	37
6	Sydney FC U21	26	10	6	10	34	38	36
7	SD Raiders	26	10	5	11	38	44	35
8	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	26	10	5	11	51	40	35
9	Manly Utd	26	9	8	9	30	30	35
10	Blacktown City	26	9	7	10	41	39	34
11	Wollongong Wolves	26	9	5	12	29	36	32
12	University NSW	26	9	4	13	37	42	31
13	NWS Spirit FC	26	9	4	13	28	36	31
14	St George City FA	26	8	7	11	24	40	31
15	St George Saints	26	6	2	18	25	48	20
16	Sydney Olympic	26	5	4	17	27	57	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St George Saints	Apia L Tigers
Sydney FC U21	0-0 D	2-1 W
Rockdale Ilinden FC	1-6 L	0-2 L
Sydney Olympic	1-2 L	3-1 W
Manly Utd	0-2 L	2-0 W
University NSW	4-1 W	4-1 W
Sutherland Sharks	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Apia L Tigers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St George Saints

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
25/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/07	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-3	1-6	4	5	L
11/07	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
05/07	Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
27/06	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
20/06	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
13/06	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	2	5	W
06/06	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-2	14	2	L
30/05	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L

Apia L Tigers

WWWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
25/07	University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	1	W
18/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-3	5-3	9	4	W
14/07	Peninsula Power Australia Cup	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
11/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
04/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	2-3	12	4	L
28/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
21/06	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
13/06	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
06/06	Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St George Saints vs Apia L Tigers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Apia L Tigers win (67%). Probabilities: St George Saints 15%, draw 18%, Apia L Tigers 67%.

How many goals are expected in St George Saints vs Apia L Tigers?

The model expects 3.62 goals (St George Saints 1.12 · Apia L Tigers 2.5), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St George Saints vs Apia L Tigers?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.