Football · Australia New South Wales Premier League · 24/07, 11:30

Prediction: Manly Utd vs Sydney Olympic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Manly Utd1.66

Sydney Olympic1.22

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Manly Utd Draw Sydney Olympic

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Manly Utd 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Sydney Olympic 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Manly Utd 2–1–3 Sydney Olympic (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Manly Utd 1520 · Sydney Olympic 1513

	Manly Utd	Draw	Sydney Olympic
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	47%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sydney Olympic: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Manly Utd	Sydney Olympic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.2	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:04 +1’	1.91	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Manly Utd 2–1–3 Sydney Olympic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney Olympic	0-1 HT 0-0	Manly Utd
08/08/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	1-5 HT 0-4	Sydney Olympic
27/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney Olympic	2-5 HT 2-2	Manly Utd
29/06/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney Olympic	2-1 HT 0-1	Manly Utd
22/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Manly Utd	0-2 HT 0-2	Sydney Olympic
27/05/23 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Sydney Olympic	2-2 HT 1-1	Manly Utd

Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marconi Stallions	24	17	4	3	45	15	55
2	Apia L Tigers	24	17	3	4	52	30	54
3	Sydney United 58	24	16	3	5	35	17	51
4	Rockdale Ilinden FC	24	12	3	9	42	33	39
5	Sutherland Sharks	24	11	3	10	37	31	36
6	Sydney FC U21	24	10	5	9	32	34	35
7	Wollongong Wolves	24	9	5	10	28	32	32
8	NWS Spirit FC	24	9	4	11	28	30	31
9	Manly Utd	24	8	7	9	25	29	31
10	University NSW	24	9	4	11	35	36	31
11	SD Raiders	24	8	5	11	33	41	29
12	Western Sydney Wanderers U21	24	8	5	11	45	39	29
13	Blacktown City	24	6	7	11	33	39	25
14	St George City FA	24	6	7	11	22	40	25
15	St George Saints	24	6	1	17	23	45	19
16	Sydney Olympic	24	5	4	15	26	50	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Manly Utd	Sydney Olympic
Sutherland Sharks	2-1 W	1-1 D
SD Raiders	1-0 W	1-1 D
Western Sydney Wanderers U21	3-3 D	1-2 L
St George Saints	2-0 W	2-1 W
Blacktown City	0-0 D	2-0 W
St George City FA	2-1 W	1-1 D
Wollongong Wolves	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Manly Utd (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Manly Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
04/07	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
27/06	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-1	3-3	2	4	D
20/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
12/06	Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
06/06	Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
30/05	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/05	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
16/05	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

Sydney Olympic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
11/07	Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League	2-2	3-2	3	0	W
04/07	Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
27/06	St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
20/06	Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-3	0-4	0	1	L
13/06	NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
10/06	SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
06/06	St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
27/05	Fraser Park Australia Cup Qualifying	0-2	3-2	3	1	W
24/05	Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League	1-0	2-0	9	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Manly Utd vs Sydney Olympic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Manly Utd win (47%). Probabilities: Manly Utd 47%, draw 26%, Sydney Olympic 27%.

How many goals are expected in Manly Utd vs Sydney Olympic?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Manly Utd 1.66 · Sydney Olympic 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Manly Utd vs Sydney Olympic?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.