Prediction: Manly Utd vs Sutherland Sharks
Expected goals: 2.74 (Manly Utd 1.39 · Sutherland Sharks 1.35). The model gives 37% home, 27% draw, 36% away. Over 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Manly Utd sits at 4-3-3 (W-D-L), while Sutherland Sharks arrives on a 6-1-3 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Manly Utd and 3 for Sutherland Sharks.
| Manly Utd | Draw | Sutherland Sharks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sutherland Sharks (rating 1504 vs 1546).
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Manly Utd | Sutherland Sharks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 2.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manly Utd 3–0–3 Sutherland Sharks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Sutherland Sharks | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Manly Utd |
| 28/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sutherland Sharks | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Manly Utd |
| 31/05/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sutherland Sharks | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Manly Utd |
| 14/02/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Manly Utd | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 26/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Manly Utd | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Sutherland Sharks |
| 20/04/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sutherland Sharks | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Manly Utd |
Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marconi Stallions | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 14 | 52 |
| 2 | Apia L Tigers | 22 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 26 | 48 |
| 3 | Sydney United 58 | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 17 | 45 |
| 4 | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 31 | 36 |
| 5 | Sutherland Sharks | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 28 | 35 |
| 6 | Sydney FC U21 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 32 | 34 |
| 7 | Wollongong Wolves | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 26 | 32 |
| 8 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 31 | 29 |
| 9 | NWS Spirit FC | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 26 | 28 |
| 10 | Manly Utd | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 28 | 27 |
| 11 | SD Raiders | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 36 | 26 |
| 12 | University NSW | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 35 | 25 |
| 13 | St George City FA | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | 25 |
| 14 | Blacktown City | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 19 |
| 15 | St George Saints | 22 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 19 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 22 | 47 | 15 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Manly Utd | Sutherland Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| SD Raiders | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 3-3 D | 3-0 W |
| St George Saints | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Sydney United 58 | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Apia L Tigers | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Blacktown City | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| St George City FA | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| University NSW | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Manly Utd (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manly Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 12/06 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 08/05 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Sutherland Sharks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Sydney United 58 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Manly Utd vs Sutherland Sharks?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Manly Utd win (37%). Probabilities: Manly Utd 37%, draw 27%, Sutherland Sharks 36%.
How many goals are expected in Manly Utd vs Sutherland Sharks?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Manly Utd 1.39 · Sutherland Sharks 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Manly Utd vs Sutherland Sharks?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.