Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 01/08, 18:30
Prediction: Cobresal vs Union La Calera
Team pages: Cobresal · Union La Calera
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Cobresal1.23
Union La Calera1.08
1X2
Cobresal
Draw
Union La Calera
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cobresal
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Union La Calera
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cobresal
3–1–2
Union La Calera
(6 last)
- Union La Calera0-3Cobresal
- Cobresal1-0Union La Calera
- Union La Calera2-1Cobresal
- Union La Calera3-0Cobresal
- Cobresal2-1Union La Calera
- Union La Calera1-1Cobresal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cobresal 1441 · Union La Calera 1514
| Cobresal | Draw | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union La Calera (rating 1441 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Cobresal: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cobresal | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.6 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cobresal 3–1–2 Union La Calera
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 0-3 HT 3-1 | Cobresal |
| 23/08/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Cobresal | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 31/03/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Cobresal |
| 10/11/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Cobresal |
| 02/06/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Cobresal | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Union La Calera |
| 09/07/23 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cobresal |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 16 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 23 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Nublense | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 25 |
| 5 | Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 24 |
| 6 | Huachipato | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 24 |
| 7 | Palestino | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 24 |
| 8 | Everton de Vina | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 22 |
| 9 | Deportes Limache | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 26 | 21 |
| 10 | O'Higgins | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 20 |
| 11 | La Serena | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 28 | 19 |
| 12 | Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportes Concepcion | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 23 | 17 |
| 14 | Audax Italiano | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 16 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 14 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cobresal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 12/07 | CD Antofagasta Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | Cobreloa Chile Cup |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/07 | La Serena Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 28/06 | CD Antofagasta Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 24/06 | La Serena Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | Cobreloa Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 07/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 1-5 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 09/07 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/07 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | La Serena Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cobresal win (39%). Probabilities: Cobresal 39%, draw 30%, Union La Calera 31%.
How many goals are expected in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Cobresal 1.23 · Union La Calera 1.08), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.