Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 01/08, 02:00
Prediction: Universidad de Concepcion vs Audax Italiano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Universidad de Concepcion1.36
Audax Italiano1.29
1X2
Universidad de Concepcion
Draw
Audax Italiano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad de Concepcion
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Audax Italiano
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad de Concepcion
3–1–2
Audax Italiano
(6 last)
- Audax Italiano3-0Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion3-1Audax Italiano
- Audax Italiano1-1Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion1-0Audax Italiano
- Audax Italiano4-1Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion1-0Audax Italiano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad de Concepcion 1463 · Audax Italiano 1515
| Universidad de Concepcion | Draw | Audax Italiano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Audax Italiano (rating 1463 vs 1515).
- H2H favours Universidad de Concepcion: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad de Concepcion | Audax Italiano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.9 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Concepcion 3–1–2 Audax Italiano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Audax Italiano | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 13/12/20 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Audax Italiano |
| 16/03/20 Chile Liga de Primera | Audax Italiano | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 06/04/19 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Audax Italiano |
| 29/07/18 Chile Liga de Primera | Audax Italiano | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 08/04/18 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Audax Italiano |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 16 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 23 | 27 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 24 |
| 5 | Palestino | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 6 | Huachipato | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 24 |
| 7 | Everton de Vina | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | Nublense | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
| 9 | Deportes Limache | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 26 | 21 |
| 10 | O'Higgins | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 20 |
| 11 | La Serena | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 28 | 19 |
| 12 | Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 19 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportes Concepcion | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 14 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 01/07 | Nublense Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Curico Unido Chile Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 26/06 | Nublense Chile Cup |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Nublense Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
Audax Italiano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | Magallanes Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 01/07 | Palestino Chile Cup |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Magallanes Chile Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 24/06 | Palestino Chile Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 20/06 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad de Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad de Concepcion win (38%). Probabilities: Universidad de Concepcion 38%, draw 28%, Audax Italiano 34%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad de Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Universidad de Concepcion 1.36 · Audax Italiano 1.29), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.