Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 16/08, 18:30
Prediction: Nublense vs Union La Calera
Team pages: Nublense · Union La Calera
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
Nublense1.5
Union La Calera0.92
1X2
Nublense
Draw
Union La Calera
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nublense
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Union La Calera
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nublense
1–2–3
Union La Calera
(6 last)
- Union La Calera0-1Nublense
- Union La Calera3-0Nublense
- Nublense1-1Union La Calera
- Nublense0-1Union La Calera
- Union La Calera2-1Nublense
- Nublense1-1Union La Calera
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nublense 1556 · Union La Calera 1510
| Nublense | Draw | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nublense (rating 1556 vs 1510).
- H2H favours Union La Calera: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nublense | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.7 | 2.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nublense 1–2–3 Union La Calera
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Nublense |
| 26/10/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Nublense |
| 05/05/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 29/09/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 05/05/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Nublense |
| 15/08/23 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Union La Calera |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 17 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 16 | 42 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 26 | 30 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Palestino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 27 |
| 5 | Everton de Vina | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 26 |
| 6 | Coquimbo Unido | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 21 | 25 |
| 7 | Nublense | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 25 |
| 8 | Deportes Limache | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 27 | 24 |
| 9 | Huachipato | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 24 |
| 10 | Deportes Concepcion | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 23 | 23 |
| 11 | O'Higgins | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 23 |
| 12 | La Serena | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 31 | 20 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 23 | 19 |
| 14 | Universidad de Concepcion | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 19 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 34 | 17 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 13 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nublense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/07 | O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Curico Unido Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/07 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup |
1-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Curico Unido Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 12/07 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 09/07 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/07 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nublense win (50%). Probabilities: Nublense 50%, draw 28%, Union La Calera 22%.
How many goals are expected in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Nublense 1.5 · Union La Calera 0.92), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Union La Calera?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.