Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 23/08, 02:00
Prediction: Universidad Catolica vs Nublense
Team pages: Universidad Catolica · Nublense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Universidad Catolica1.97
Nublense0.94
1X2
Universidad Catolica
Draw
Nublense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad Catolica
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Nublense
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad Catolica
3–2–1
Nublense
(6 last)
- Universidad Catolica1-1Nublense
- Nublense1-0Universidad Catolica
- Nublense1-2Universidad Catolica
- Universidad Catolica1-0Nublense
- Nublense1-1Universidad Catolica
- Nublense1-2Universidad Catolica
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica 1547 · Nublense 1554
| Universidad Catolica | Draw | Nublense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica | Nublense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.5 | 3 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica 3–2–1 Nublense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Universidad Catolica | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Nublense |
| 25/03/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Nublense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 02/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Universidad Catolica |
| 10/10/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad Catolica | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Nublense |
| 08/03/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 28/07/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Universidad Catolica |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 19 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 46 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 36 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 26 | 30 |
| 4 | Nublense | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 22 | 29 |
| 5 | Everton de Vina | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 22 | 27 |
| 6 | Palestino | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportes Concepcion | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 23 | 26 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 21 | 25 |
| 9 | Deportes Limache | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 30 | 24 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 24 |
| 11 | O'Higgins | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 30 | 24 |
| 12 | La Serena | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 31 | 23 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 21 |
| 14 | Universidad de Concepcion | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 19 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 36 | 17 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 13 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 11/07 | San Luis Quillota Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 05/07 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 01/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Cup |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 20/06 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
Nublense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 05/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/07 | O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Curico Unido Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/07 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup |
1-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica vs Nublense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica win (60%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica 60%, draw 23%, Nublense 16%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica vs Nublense?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Universidad Catolica 1.97 · Nublense 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica vs Nublense?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.