Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 01/09, 02:45

Prediction: Universidad Catolica vs O'Higgins

Team pages: Universidad Catolica · O'Higgins

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Universidad Catolica1.7

O'Higgins1.05

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Universidad Catolica Draw O'Higgins

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Catolica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDLWLW

O'Higgins 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Universidad Catolica 3–3 O'Higgins (6 last)

O'Higgins1-0Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica0-2O'Higgins
O'Higgins2-0Universidad Catolica
O'Higgins0-2Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica3-2O'Higgins
O'Higgins0-3Universidad Catolica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica 1529 · O'Higgins 1528

	Universidad Catolica	Draw	O'Higgins
Our model	51%	26%	22%
Market	52%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Catolica	O'Higgins
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +7’	1.80	3.60	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:45	1.79	3.70	4.16
01:40 +2’	1.80▲	3.75▲	4.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica 3–0–3 O'Higgins

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	1-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica
02/11/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	0-2 HT 0-1	O'Higgins
17/05/25 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica
06/10/24 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	0-2 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica
11/05/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	3-2 HT 3-1	O'Higgins
07/10/23 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	0-3 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	20	16	1	3	42	20	49
2	Universidad de Chile	20	10	6	4	27	15	36
3	Universidad Catolica	20	10	3	7	43	29	33
4	Palestino	20	10	3	7	32	27	33
5	Nublense	19	8	8	3	26	23	32
6	Everton de Vina	20	8	6	6	31	23	30
7	Deportes Limache	19	8	3	8	38	31	27
8	Deportes Concepcion	20	8	3	9	23	24	27
9	Coquimbo Unido	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
10	La Serena	20	5	9	6	31	34	24
11	O'Higgins	20	7	3	10	24	31	24
12	Huachipato	20	7	3	10	29	39	24
13	Audax Italiano	20	5	7	8	23	26	22
14	Universidad de Concepcion	19	5	4	10	14	33	19
15	Cobresal	20	5	3	12	29	39	18
16	Union La Calera	20	3	5	12	17	37	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Catolica	O'Higgins
Coquimbo Unido	2-1 W	0-0 D
Nublense	1-2 L	2-0 W
Deportes Concepcion	0-3 L	0-2 L
La Serena	3-3 D	2-1 W
Universidad de Concepcion	5-1 W	0-1 L
Colo Colo	1-2 L	2-2 D
Deportes Limache	2-0 W	1-3 L
Universidad de Chile	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Catolica

LWLWWDLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
08/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	10	4	W
02/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
26/07	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-3	6	2	D
14/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	5-1	5	4	W
31/05	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
25/05	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	1-2	8	7	L
17/05	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-0	7	8	W
26/04	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	3	9	L

O'Higgins

WLLDLLWLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-1	0	6	L
16/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
09/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
02/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
27/07	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
19/06	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
13/06	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/05	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-3	5	5	L
16/05	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	16	6	L
25/04	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica vs O'Higgins?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica win (51%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica 51%, draw 26%, O'Higgins 23%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica vs O'Higgins?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Universidad Catolica 1.7 · O'Higgins 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica vs O'Higgins?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.