Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 30/08, 02:00

Prediction: Nublense vs Deportes Concepcion

Team pages: Nublense · Deportes Concepcion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Nublense1.49

Deportes Concepcion1.06

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Nublense Draw Deportes Concepcion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nublense 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLLDWDWDWW

Deportes Concepcion 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Nublense 1–2–3 Deportes Concepcion (6 last)

Deportes Concepcion0-2Nublense
Deportes Concepcion1-1Nublense
Nublense1-3Deportes Concepcion
Deportes Concepcion5-2Nublense
Deportes Concepcion1-0Nublense
Nublense0-0Deportes Concepcion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nublense 1576 · Deportes Concepcion 1575

	Nublense	Draw	Deportes Concepcion
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportes Concepcion: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nublense	Deportes Concepcion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.1	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.11 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.33
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	2.00	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	2.11	3.33	3.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nublense 1–2–3 Deportes Concepcion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Deportes Concepcion	0-2 HT 0-1	Nublense
05/11/23 America Friendlies	Deportes Concepcion	1-1 HT 1-0	Nublense
20/03/16 Chile Primera B	Nublense	1-3 HT 0-1	Deportes Concepcion
04/11/15 Chile Primera B	Deportes Concepcion	5-2 HT 0-1	Nublense
29/07/15 Chile Cup	Deportes Concepcion	1-0 HT 0-0	Nublense
09/07/15 Chile Cup	Nublense	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Concepcion

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	20	16	1	3	42	20	49
2	Universidad de Chile	20	10	6	4	27	15	36
3	Nublense	19	8	8	3	26	23	32
4	Universidad Catolica	19	9	3	7	41	28	30
5	Palestino	19	9	3	7	31	27	30
6	Deportes Limache	19	8	3	8	38	31	27
7	Everton de Vina	19	7	6	6	28	22	27
8	Deportes Concepcion	20	8	3	9	23	24	27
9	Coquimbo Unido	18	7	5	6	25	22	26
10	La Serena	20	5	9	6	31	34	24
11	O'Higgins	19	7	3	9	24	30	24
12	Huachipato	20	7	3	10	29	39	24
13	Audax Italiano	20	5	7	8	23	26	22
14	Universidad de Concepcion	18	5	4	9	13	30	19
15	Cobresal	20	5	3	12	29	39	18
16	Union La Calera	20	3	5	12	17	37	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nublense	Deportes Concepcion
Universidad Catolica	2-1 W	3-0 W
Palestino	2-0 W	1-0 W
Huachipato	2-2 D	2-0 W
Cobresal	1-0 W	2-0 W
Universidad de Concepcion	2-2 D	1-0 W
O'Higgins	0-2 L	2-0 W
Coquimbo Unido	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Concepcion (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nublense

DLLDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-1	2	8	W
16/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	10	2	W
11/08	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
26/07	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
14/06	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-2	10	5	D
30/05	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/05	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-2	2	4	D
17/05	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-6	4	1	L
25/04	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
19/04	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	2	7	D

Deportes Concepcion

WLWLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
02/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-0	4	6	W
27/07	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
14/06	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	3-2	7	1	W
30/05	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-2	1	10	L
24/05	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
18/05	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
24/04	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	0	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nublense vs Deportes Concepcion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nublense win (46%). Probabilities: Nublense 46%, draw 28%, Deportes Concepcion 26%.

How many goals are expected in Nublense vs Deportes Concepcion?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Nublense 1.49 · Deportes Concepcion 1.06), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nublense vs Deportes Concepcion?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.