Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 01/09, 00:15
Prediction: Union La Calera vs La Serena
Team pages: Union La Calera · La Serena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Union La Calera1.71
La Serena1.39
1X2
Union La Calera
Draw
La Serena
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Union La Calera
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
La Serena
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union La Calera
2–1–3
La Serena
(6 last)
- La Serena0-2Union La Calera
- Union La Calera2-1La Serena
- La Serena3-0Union La Calera
- Union La Calera1-1La Serena
- La Serena1-0Union La Calera
- La Serena2-1Union La Calera
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union La Calera 1493 · La Serena 1459
| Union La Calera | Draw | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours La Serena: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union La Calera | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5 | 2.6 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union La Calera 2–1–3 La Serena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | La Serena | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Union La Calera |
| 28/03/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Union La Calera | 2-1 HT 0-1 | La Serena |
| 06/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Union La Calera |
| 16/08/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 1-1 HT 1-0 | La Serena |
| 16/03/25 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 30/10/22 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Union La Calera |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 20 | 49 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 15 | 36 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 29 | 33 |
| 4 | Palestino | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 33 |
| 5 | Nublense | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 23 | 32 |
| 6 | Everton de Vina | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 30 |
| 7 | Deportes Limache | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 27 |
| 8 | Deportes Concepcion | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| 10 | La Serena | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 31 | 34 | 24 |
| 11 | O'Higgins | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 24 |
| 12 | Huachipato | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 24 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 22 |
| 14 | Universidad de Concepcion | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 33 | 19 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 39 | 18 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union La Calera | La Serena |
|---|---|---|
| Audax Italiano | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Colo Colo | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Cobresal | 0-4 L | 3-3 D |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Palestino | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Huachipato | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Coquimbo Unido | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 5 L | 1 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: La Serena (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/08 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
La Serena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
3-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union La Calera vs La Serena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union La Calera win (43%). Probabilities: Union La Calera 43%, draw 27%, La Serena 29%.
How many goals are expected in Union La Calera vs La Serena?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Union La Calera 1.71 · La Serena 1.39), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs La Serena?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.