Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 30/08, 21:00
Prediction: Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile
Team pages: Universidad de Concepcion · Universidad de Chile
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Universidad de Concepcion1.06
Universidad de Chile1.7
1X2
Universidad de Concepcion
Draw
Universidad de Chile
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad de Concepcion
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Universidad de Chile
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad de Concepcion
4–1–1
Universidad de Chile
(6 last)
- Universidad de Chile1-1Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Chile2-0Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion1-0Universidad de Chile
- Universidad de Concepcion2-1Universidad de Chile
- Universidad de Concepcion3-1Universidad de Chile
- Universidad de Chile1-2Universidad de Concepcion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad de Concepcion 1396 · Universidad de Chile 1586
| Universidad de Concepcion | Draw | Universidad de Chile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 22% | 26% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad de Chile (rating 1396 vs 1586).
- H2H favours Universidad de Concepcion: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad de Concepcion | Universidad de Chile | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.9 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/10/80% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 2.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Concepcion 4–1–1 Universidad de Chile
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Chile | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 03/01/21 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Chile | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 29/10/20 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Chile |
| 16/03/19 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Chile |
| 23/09/18 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Universidad de Chile |
| 29/04/18 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Chile | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 20 | 49 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 15 | 36 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 29 | 33 |
| 4 | Palestino | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 33 |
| 5 | Nublense | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 23 | 32 |
| 6 | Everton de Vina | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 30 |
| 7 | Deportes Limache | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 27 |
| 8 | Deportes Concepcion | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| 10 | La Serena | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 31 | 34 | 24 |
| 11 | O'Higgins | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 24 |
| 12 | Huachipato | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 24 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 22 |
| 14 | Universidad de Concepcion | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 33 | 19 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 39 | 18 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad de Concepcion | Universidad de Chile |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Concepcion | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Audax Italiano | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Universidad Catolica | 1-5 L | 1-0 W |
| Union La Calera | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| O'Higgins | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Colo Colo | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Deportes Limache | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad de Chile (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 01/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
Universidad de Chile
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 15/08 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 10 | W |
| 17/05 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad de Chile win (51%). Probabilities: Universidad de Concepcion 22%, draw 26%, Universidad de Chile 51%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Universidad de Concepcion 1.06 · Universidad de Chile 1.7), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.