Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 06/09, 02:00

Prediction: Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido

Team pages: Universidad de Chile · Coquimbo Unido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Universidad de Chile1.28

Coquimbo Unido0.92

1X2

44% 29% 26%

Universidad de Chile Draw Coquimbo Unido

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad de Chile 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWWL

Coquimbo Unido 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDLDDL

Head-to-head

Universidad de Chile 2–2–2 Coquimbo Unido (6 last)

Coquimbo Unido0-1Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile1-1Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido1-0Universidad de Chile
Coquimbo Unido2-1Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile1-0Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido0-0Universidad de Chile

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad de Chile 1566 · Coquimbo Unido 1499

	Universidad de Chile	Draw	Coquimbo Unido
Our model	43%	31%	25%
Market	45%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad de Chile (rating 1566 vs 1499).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad de Chile	Coquimbo Unido
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	3.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	5.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +6’	2.05	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Chile 2–2–2 Coquimbo Unido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Coquimbo Unido	0-1 HT 0-0	Universidad de Chile
02/12/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad de Chile	1-1 HT 0-1	Coquimbo Unido
15/06/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Coquimbo Unido	1-0 HT 0-0	Universidad de Chile
05/01/25 America Friendlies	Coquimbo Unido	2-1 HT 1-0	Universidad de Chile
14/10/24 Chile Cup	Universidad de Chile	1-0 HT 0-0	Coquimbo Unido
09/10/24 Chile Cup	Coquimbo Unido	0-0 HT 0-0	Universidad de Chile

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	20	16	1	3	42	20	49
2	Universidad de Chile	20	10	6	4	27	15	36
3	Universidad Catolica	20	10	3	7	43	29	33
4	Everton de Vina	21	9	6	6	34	23	33
5	Palestino	21	10	3	8	32	29	33
6	Nublense	20	8	8	4	26	24	32
7	Deportes Concepcion	21	9	3	9	24	24	30
8	Deportes Limache	20	8	3	9	38	34	27
9	Coquimbo Unido	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
10	La Serena	20	5	9	6	31	34	24
11	O'Higgins	20	7	3	10	24	31	24
12	Huachipato	20	7	3	10	29	39	24
13	Audax Italiano	20	5	7	8	23	26	22
14	Cobresal	21	6	3	12	31	39	21
15	Universidad de Concepcion	19	5	4	10	14	33	19
16	Union La Calera	20	3	5	12	17	37	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad de Chile	Coquimbo Unido
Colo Colo	1-2 L	1-3 L
Deportes Limache	3-1 W	3-2 W
Palestino	2-1 W	1-2 L
Audax Italiano	2-1 W	3-0 W
O'Higgins	2-0 W	0-0 D
Union La Calera	2-2 D	2-1 W
Deportes Concepcion	2-1 W	1-1 D
Universidad Catolica	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad de Chile (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad de Chile

WLWDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
15/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
10/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
02/08	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	13	3	W
26/07	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
19/06	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
14/06	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
30/05	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-1	8	10	W
17/05	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
26/04	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	7	9	W

Coquimbo Unido

WLWDWDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
23/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
08/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	12	8	D
01/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
13/06	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
31/05	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
22/05	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
16/05	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-0	8	5	W
03/05	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
25/04	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-1	4	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad de Chile win (44%). Probabilities: Universidad de Chile 44%, draw 29%, Coquimbo Unido 26%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Universidad de Chile 1.28 · Coquimbo Unido 0.92), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.