Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 06/09, 17:30
Prediction: La Serena vs Nublense
Team pages: La Serena · Nublense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
La Serena1.5
Nublense1.46
1X2
La Serena
Draw
Nublense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
La Serena
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Nublense
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
La Serena
2–2–2
Nublense
(6 last)
- Nublense2-2La Serena
- La Serena1-1Nublense
- Nublense2-0La Serena
- La Serena3-0Nublense
- Nublense3-1La Serena
- Nublense0-1La Serena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · La Serena 1494 · Nublense 1528
| La Serena | Draw | Nublense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| La Serena | Nublense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 3.8 | 2.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · La Serena 2–2–2 Nublense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 2-2 HT 1-0 | La Serena |
| 18/10/25 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Nublense |
| 26/04/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 2-0 HT 0-0 | La Serena |
| 30/07/22 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Nublense |
| 05/03/22 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 3-1 HT 2-0 | La Serena |
| 06/10/21 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | La Serena |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 21 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 31 | 36 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 36 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 23 | 33 |
| 5 | Palestino | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 33 |
| 6 | Nublense | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Deportes Limache | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 34 | 30 |
| 8 | Deportes Concepcion | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 25 | 30 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 24 | 29 |
| 10 | La Serena | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 32 | 34 | 27 |
| 11 | Audax Italiano | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 31 | 25 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 34 | 24 |
| 13 | Huachipato | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 24 |
| 14 | Universidad de Concepcion | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 35 | 22 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 39 | 21 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 38 | 14 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | La Serena | Nublense |
|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Cobresal | 3-3 D | 1-0 W |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Universidad Catolica | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Audax Italiano | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Colo Colo | 2-4 L | 2-6 L |
| Palestino | 1-5 L | 2-0 W |
| Huachipato | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 2 L | 4 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Nublense (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
La Serena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
Nublense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 16/08 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 11/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 26/07 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in La Serena vs Nublense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a La Serena win (37%). Probabilities: La Serena 37%, draw 28%, Nublense 35%.
How many goals are expected in La Serena vs Nublense?
The model expects 2.97 goals (La Serena 1.5 · Nublense 1.46), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in La Serena vs Nublense?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.