Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 05/09, 23:30

Prediction: Everton de Vina vs Universidad Catolica

Team pages: Everton de Vina · Universidad Catolica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Everton de Vina1.42

Universidad Catolica1.83

1X2

29% 26% 46%

Everton de Vina Draw Universidad Catolica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Everton de Vina 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDLWDWW

Universidad Catolica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDLWLW

Head-to-head

Everton de Vina 1–1–4 Universidad Catolica (6 last)

Universidad Catolica2-1Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina1-3Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica2-2Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina0-3Universidad Catolica
Everton de Vina2-1Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica6-0Everton de Vina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Everton de Vina 1539 · Universidad Catolica 1512

	Everton de Vina	Draw	Universidad Catolica
Our model	29%	25%	46%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad Catolica: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Everton de Vina	Universidad Catolica
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 7	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +5’	3.30	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Everton de Vina 1–1–4 Universidad Catolica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Chile Cup	Universidad Catolica	2-1 HT 1-1	Everton de Vina
24/06/26 Chile Cup	Everton de Vina	1-3 HT 0-3	Universidad Catolica
15/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	2-2 HT 1-2	Everton de Vina
19/10/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Everton de Vina	0-3 HT 0-2	Universidad Catolica
11/05/25 Chile Cup	Everton de Vina	2-1 HT 2-1	Universidad Catolica
26/04/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad Catolica	6-0 HT 3-0	Everton de Vina

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	20	16	1	3	42	20	49
2	Universidad de Chile	20	10	6	4	27	15	36
3	Universidad Catolica	20	10	3	7	43	29	33
4	Everton de Vina	21	9	6	6	34	23	33
5	Palestino	21	10	3	8	32	29	33
6	Nublense	20	8	8	4	26	24	32
7	Deportes Concepcion	21	9	3	9	24	24	30
8	Deportes Limache	20	8	3	9	38	34	27
9	Coquimbo Unido	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
10	La Serena	20	5	9	6	31	34	24
11	O'Higgins	20	7	3	10	24	31	24
12	Huachipato	20	7	3	10	29	39	24
13	Audax Italiano	20	5	7	8	23	26	22
14	Cobresal	21	6	3	12	31	39	21
15	Universidad de Concepcion	19	5	4	10	14	33	19
16	Union La Calera	20	3	5	12	17	37	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Everton de Vina	Universidad Catolica
Deportes Limache	3-0 W	2-0 W
Universidad de Concepcion	3-1 W	5-1 W
Huachipato	4-1 W	3-0 W
Colo Colo	3-4 L	1-2 L
Coquimbo Unido	1-1 D	2-1 W
Deportes Concepcion	2-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Everton de Vina

WDWLDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
25/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	3-1	3-1	9	7	W
16/08	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
08/08	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	3-1	4-1	7	6	W
01/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	2-2	3-4	7	3	L
28/07	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
13/06	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	1-2	14	6	L
31/05	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	3-2	4	5	W
22/05	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
18/05	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	9	3	W

Universidad Catolica

LWLWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
08/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	10	4	W
02/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
26/07	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-3	6	2	D
14/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	5-1	5	4	W
31/05	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
25/05	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	1-2	8	7	L
17/05	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-0	7	8	W
26/04	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	3	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Everton de Vina vs Universidad Catolica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica win (46%). Probabilities: Everton de Vina 29%, draw 26%, Universidad Catolica 46%.

How many goals are expected in Everton de Vina vs Universidad Catolica?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Everton de Vina 1.42 · Universidad Catolica 1.83), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad Catolica?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.