Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 07/09, 00:30
Prediction: Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion
Team pages: Palestino · Universidad de Concepcion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Palestino1.8
Universidad de Concepcion0.98
1X2
Palestino
Draw
Universidad de Concepcion
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Palestino
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Universidad de Concepcion
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Palestino
1–2–3
Universidad de Concepcion
(6 last)
- Universidad de Concepcion1-0Palestino
- Universidad de Concepcion1-1Palestino
- Palestino0-1Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion0-0Palestino
- Palestino4-1Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion3-2Palestino
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palestino 1537 · Universidad de Concepcion 1444
| Palestino | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palestino (rating 1537 vs 1444).
- H2H favours Universidad de Concepcion: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palestino | Universidad de Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 1.4 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.5 | 5.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palestino 1–2–3 Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Palestino |
| 07/01/21 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Palestino |
| 01/10/20 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 01/09/19 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Palestino |
| 09/03/19 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 21/07/18 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Palestino |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 21 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 31 | 36 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 36 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 23 | 33 |
| 5 | Palestino | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 33 |
| 6 | Nublense | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Deportes Limache | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 34 | 30 |
| 8 | Deportes Concepcion | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 25 | 30 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 24 | 29 |
| 10 | La Serena | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 32 | 34 | 27 |
| 11 | Audax Italiano | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 31 | 25 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 34 | 24 |
| 13 | Huachipato | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 24 |
| 14 | Universidad de Concepcion | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 35 | 22 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 39 | 21 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 38 | 14 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Palestino | Universidad de Concepcion |
|---|---|---|
| O'Higgins | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Universidad de Chile | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Coquimbo Unido | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Nublense | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Everton de Vina | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Audax Italiano | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Union La Calera | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| La Serena | 5-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Palestino (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palestino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/08 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/08 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 01/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 25/08 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 01/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palestino win (56%). Probabilities: Palestino 56%, draw 25%, Universidad de Concepcion 19%.
How many goals are expected in Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Palestino 1.8 · Universidad de Concepcion 0.98), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.