Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 10/10, 01:00

Prediction: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense

Team pages: Universidad de Chile · Nublense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Universidad de Chile1.89

Nublense0.79

1X2

62% 23% 14%

Universidad de Chile Draw Nublense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad de Chile 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLLWW

Nublense 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Universidad de Chile 3–2–1 Nublense (6 last)

Nublense1-0Universidad de Chile
Nublense2-2Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile5-0Nublense
Universidad de Chile1-0Nublense
Nublense1-4Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Chile0-0Nublense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universidad de Chile 1588 · Nublense 1489

	Universidad de Chile	Draw	Nublense
Our model	62%	24%	14%
Market	63%	23%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad de Chile (rating 1588 vs 1489).
H2H favours Universidad de Chile: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad de Chile	Nublense
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.6	2.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.56 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.11
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:45 +10’	1.48	4.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:03 +52’	1.56	4.11	5.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Chile 3–2–1 Nublense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	1-0 HT 0-0	Universidad de Chile
20/07/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	2-2 HT 0-0	Universidad de Chile
16/02/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad de Chile	5-0 HT 0-0	Nublense
20/11/24 Chile Cup	Universidad de Chile	1-0 HT 1-0	Nublense
03/11/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	1-4 HT 0-1	Universidad de Chile
26/05/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Universidad de Chile	0-0 HT 0-0	Nublense

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	23	17	3	3	48	22	54
2	Universidad Catolica	23	13	3	7	50	33	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	12	6	5	35	19	42
4	Everton de Vina	23	10	6	7	37	25	36
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	36	33	36
6	Deportes Limache	23	10	3	10	43	35	33
7	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28	31	32
8	Deportes Concepcion	23	9	4	10	25	26	31
9	La Serena	23	7	9	7	34	38	30
10	Coquimbo Unido	23	8	5	10	31	32	29
11	Audax Italiano	23	7	7	9	26	31	28
12	Huachipato	22	8	4	10	30	39	28
13	O'Higgins	23	8	3	12	28	36	27
14	Cobresal	23	7	3	13	34	44	24
15	Universidad de Concepcion	22	6	4	12	17	37	22
16	Union La Calera	23	4	5	14	19	40	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad de Chile	Nublense
La Serena	3-0 W	1-2 L
Universidad de Concepcion	1-2 L	2-2 D
Deportes Limache	3-1 W	0-2 L
Huachipato	2-0 W	2-2 D
Audax Italiano	2-1 W	2-2 D
Union La Calera	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad de Chile (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad de Chile

DWWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
06/09	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	4-2	5	5	W
30/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	1-2	15	7	L
23/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
15/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
10/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
02/08	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-0	13	3	W
26/07	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
19/06	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
14/06	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	2-2	2	6	D

Nublense

DWDDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-3	4	6	L
06/09	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
03/09	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
30/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
23/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-1	2	8	W
16/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	10	2	W
11/08	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
14/06	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-2	10	5	D
30/05	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/05	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-2	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad de Chile win (62%). Probabilities: Universidad de Chile 62%, draw 23%, Nublense 14%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Universidad de Chile 1.89 · Nublense 0.79), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.