Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 11/10, 20:00

Prediction: Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo

Team pages: Coquimbo Unido · Colo Colo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Coquimbo Unido1.24

Colo Colo1.51

1X2

30% 28% 42%

Coquimbo Unido Draw Colo Colo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Coquimbo Unido 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDDLWLL

Colo Colo 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWWDD

Head-to-head

Coquimbo Unido 2–1–3 Colo Colo (6 last)

Coquimbo Unido1-0Colo Colo
Colo Colo3-1Coquimbo Unido
Colo Colo1-1Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido1-0Colo Colo
Colo Colo2-0Coquimbo Unido
Colo Colo2-0Coquimbo Unido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coquimbo Unido 1531 · Colo Colo 1605

	Coquimbo Unido	Draw	Colo Colo
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	30%	27%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colo Colo (rating 1531 vs 1605).
H2H favours Colo Colo: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coquimbo Unido	Colo Colo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	2.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.1	4.2 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.23 ★
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.52
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.24

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:02 +5’	3.00	3.30	2.20
19:58 +25’	3.10▲	3.40▲	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +297’	3.17	3.33	2.28
01:00 +156’	3.19▲	3.35▲	2.25▼
15:29 +154’	3.18▼	3.36▲	2.25
20:04 +89’	3.22▲	3.40▲	2.28▲
06:02 +15’	3.24▲	3.41▲	2.26▼
08:03 +11’	3.26▲	3.43▲	2.27▲
10:09 +8’	3.25▼	3.45▲	2.26▼
10:39 +44’	3.23▼	3.52▲	2.24▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coquimbo Unido 2–1–3 Colo Colo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Chile Copa de la Liga	Coquimbo Unido	1-0 HT 1-0	Colo Colo
03/05/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Colo Colo	3-1 HT 1-0	Coquimbo Unido
21/03/26 Chile Copa de la Liga	Colo Colo	1-1 HT 1-0	Coquimbo Unido
19/10/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Coquimbo Unido	1-0 HT 0-0	Colo Colo
26/04/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Colo Colo	2-0 HT 2-0	Coquimbo Unido
17/08/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Colo Colo	2-0 HT 0-0	Coquimbo Unido

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	23	17	3	3	48	22	54
2	Universidad Catolica	23	13	3	7	50	33	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	12	6	5	35	19	42
4	Everton de Vina	23	10	6	7	37	25	36
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	36	33	36
6	Huachipato	24	10	4	10	34	39	34
7	Deportes Limache	23	10	3	10	43	35	33
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28	31	32
9	Deportes Concepcion	23	9	4	10	25	26	31
10	La Serena	23	7	9	7	34	38	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	8	5	10	31	32	29
12	Audax Italiano	23	7	7	9	26	31	28
13	O'Higgins	24	8	3	13	28	38	27
14	Cobresal	24	7	4	13	35	45	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	18	40	23
16	Union La Calera	23	4	5	14	19	40	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coquimbo Unido	Colo Colo
Cobresal	2-3 L	3-0 W
Universidad de Chile	2-4 L	2-1 W
Deportes Concepcion	1-1 D	1-1 D
La Serena	1-1 D	4-2 W
O'Higgins	0-0 D	2-2 D
Deportes Limache	3-2 W	3-1 W
Everton de Vina	1-1 D	4-3 W
Audax Italiano	3-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	6 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Colo Colo (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coquimbo Unido

WDWDDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-3	9	4	L
06/09	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-4	4	5	L
03/09	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
27/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
23/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
08/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	12	8	D
13/06	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
31/05	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
22/05	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
16/05	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-0	8	5	W

Colo Colo

WWWWWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
06/09	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
30/08	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	2-1	5-1	4	1	W
23/08	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-1	6	8	W
16/08	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-2	9	4	D
09/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	12	3	W
01/08	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	2-2	4-3	3	3	W
25/07	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	3-1	6	4	W
13/06	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	3-0	3-0	5	0	W
30/05	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	4-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Colo Colo win (42%). Probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 30%, draw 28%, Colo Colo 42%.

How many goals are expected in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Coquimbo Unido 1.24 · Colo Colo 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.