Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 10/10, 20:00
Prediction: Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion
Team pages: Cobresal · Universidad de Concepcion
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Cobresal1.58
Universidad de Concepcion1.26
1X2
Cobresal
Draw
Universidad de Concepcion
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Cobresal
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Universidad de Concepcion
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cobresal
3–1–2
Universidad de Concepcion
(6 last)
- Cobresal2-1Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion1-0Cobresal
- Universidad de Concepcion2-1Cobresal
- Cobresal3-1Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion2-2Cobresal
- Cobresal1-0Universidad de Concepcion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cobresal 1470 · Universidad de Concepcion 1415
| Cobresal | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cobresal (rating 1470 vs 1415).
- H2H favours Cobresal: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cobresal | Universidad de Concepcion | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 0.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.3 | 2.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cobresal 3–1–2 Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Cobresal | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 13/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cobresal |
| 27/03/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Universidad de Concepcion | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Cobresal |
| 08/12/20 Chile Liga de Primera | Cobresal | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 06/03/20 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad de Concepcion | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Cobresal |
| 15/04/19 Chile Liga de Primera | Cobresal | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 42 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 25 | 36 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 33 | 36 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 35 | 33 |
| 7 | Nublense | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 31 | 32 |
| 8 | Deportes Concepcion | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 26 | 31 |
| 9 | Huachipato | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 39 | 31 |
| 10 | La Serena | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 38 | 30 |
| 11 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 32 | 29 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 36 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 44 | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 39 | 22 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 40 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cobresal | Universidad de Concepcion |
|---|---|---|
| Coquimbo Unido | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Palestino | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| La Serena | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Deportes Concepcion | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Universidad Catolica | 0-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Union La Calera | 4-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Huachipato | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Cobresal (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cobresal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 08/09 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 16/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 03/09 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 25/08 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cobresal win (44%). Probabilities: Cobresal 44%, draw 27%, Universidad de Concepcion 29%.
How many goals are expected in Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Cobresal 1.58 · Universidad de Concepcion 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepcion?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.