Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 25/10, 19:00
Prediction: Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica
Team pages: Union La Calera · Universidad Catolica
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Union La Calera1.12
Universidad Catolica1.65
1X2
Union La Calera
Draw
Universidad Catolica
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Union La Calera
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Universidad Catolica
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union La Calera
2–3–1
Universidad Catolica
(6 last)
- Universidad Catolica0-0Union La Calera
- Union La Calera1-1Universidad Catolica
- Universidad Catolica1-2Union La Calera
- Universidad Catolica2-1Union La Calera
- Union La Calera1-1Universidad Catolica
- Universidad Catolica0-1Union La Calera
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union La Calera 1468 · Universidad Catolica 1544
| Union La Calera | Draw | Universidad Catolica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Market | 25% | 26% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (rating 1468 vs 1544).
- H2H favours Union La Calera: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union La Calera | Universidad Catolica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 2.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.9 | 2.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union La Calera 2–3–1 Universidad Catolica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/26 Chile Cup | Universidad Catolica | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 24/09/26 Chile Cup | Union La Calera | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 21/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad Catolica | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Union La Calera |
| 06/12/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad Catolica | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Union La Calera |
| 20/06/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Universidad Catolica |
| 22/03/25 Chile Cup | Universidad Catolica | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 27 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | 34 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 | 39 | 34 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 34 | 32 |
| 9 | Deportes Concepcion | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 32 |
| 10 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | 32 |
| 11 | La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 41 | 30 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 38 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 45 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 18 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union La Calera | Universidad Catolica |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Concepcion | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| O'Higgins | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| La Serena | 0-1 L | 3-3 D |
| Nublense | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Cobresal | 0-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Everton de Vina | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/08 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
Universidad Catolica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 27/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 08/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica win (48%). Probabilities: Union La Calera 25%, draw 27%, Universidad Catolica 48%.
How many goals are expected in Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Union La Calera 1.12 · Universidad Catolica 1.65), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.