Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 25/10, 01:00

Prediction: O'Higgins vs Cobresal

Team pages: O'Higgins · Cobresal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

O'Higgins1.94

Cobresal1.12

1X2

55% 24% 21%

O'Higgins Draw Cobresal

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

O'Higgins 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLWLL

Cobresal 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDWLWD

Head-to-head

O'Higgins 2–3–1 Cobresal (6 last)

Cobresal2-3O'Higgins
O'Higgins1-0Cobresal
Cobresal0-0O'Higgins
Cobresal3-1O'Higgins
O'Higgins2-2Cobresal
O'Higgins0-0Cobresal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · O'Higgins 1530 · Cobresal 1461

	O'Higgins	Draw	Cobresal
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours O'Higgins (rating 1530 vs 1461).
H2H favours O'Higgins: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	O'Higgins	Cobresal
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.21 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +22’	1.67	3.80	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:15 +2300’	1.63	4.21	4.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · O'Higgins 2–3–1 Cobresal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Cobresal	2-3 HT 1-0	O'Higgins
17/08/25 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	1-0 HT 1-0	Cobresal
16/03/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Cobresal	0-0 HT 0-0	O'Higgins
02/11/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Cobresal	3-1 HT 1-1	O'Higgins
26/05/24 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	2-2 HT 0-1	Cobresal
25/11/23 Chile Liga de Primera	O'Higgins	0-0 HT 0-0	Cobresal

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	24	17	3	4	50	27	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	41	19	45
3	Universidad Catolica	23	13	3	7	50	33	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	40	27	39
5	Palestino	24	11	4	9	38	35	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	10	4	10	45	37	34
7	Huachipato	24	10	4	10	34	39	34
8	Coquimbo Unido	24	9	5	10	36	34	32
9	Deportes Concepcion	24	9	5	10	26	27	32
10	Nublense	24	8	8	8	28	37	32
11	La Serena	24	7	9	8	36	41	30
12	Audax Italiano	23	7	7	9	26	31	28
13	O'Higgins	24	8	3	13	28	38	27
14	Cobresal	24	7	4	13	35	45	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	6	5	13	18	40	23
16	Union La Calera	24	4	6	14	20	41	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	O'Higgins	Cobresal
Huachipato	0-2 L	3-3 D
Union La Calera	2-1 W	4-0 W
Universidad Catolica	2-3 L	0-2 L
Palestino	0-1 L	2-0 W
Colo Colo	2-2 D	0-3 L
Deportes Limache	1-3 L	0-3 L
La Serena	2-1 W	3-3 D
Deportes Concepcion	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: O'Higgins (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

O'Higgins

LLWLDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
14/09	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	9	8	L
06/09	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
01/09	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-3	10	6	L
24/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-1	0	6	L
16/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
09/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
02/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
27/07	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
19/06	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	3	6	L

Cobresal

LDWLLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
12/09	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
08/09	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-3	1	6	L
29/08	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
23/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-3	7	5	D
16/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
08/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
01/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
25/07	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	3-3	1	2	D
13/06	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-3	0-3	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in O'Higgins vs Cobresal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a O'Higgins win (55%). Probabilities: O'Higgins 55%, draw 24%, Cobresal 21%.

How many goals are expected in O'Higgins vs Cobresal?

The model expects 3.07 goals (O'Higgins 1.94 · Cobresal 1.12), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Cobresal?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.