Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 26/10, 00:00
Prediction: Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache
Team pages: Universidad de Concepcion · Deportes Limache
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Universidad de Concepcion1.45
Deportes Limache1.56
1X2
Universidad de Concepcion
Draw
Deportes Limache
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad de Concepcion
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Deportes Limache
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad de Concepcion
2–1
Deportes Limache
(3 last)
- Deportes Limache3-0Universidad de Concepcion
- Universidad de Concepcion2-0Deportes Limache
- Deportes Limache0-1Universidad de Concepcion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad de Concepcion 1398 · Deportes Limache 1483
| Universidad de Concepcion | Draw | Deportes Limache | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 26% | 39% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Limache (rating 1398 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Universidad de Concepcion: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad de Concepcion | Deportes Limache | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.9 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.8 | 2.7 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.6 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad de Concepcion 2–0–1 Deportes Limache
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Deportes Limache | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
| 06/08/24 Chile Primera B | Universidad de Concepcion | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Deportes Limache |
| 25/03/24 Chile Primera B | Deportes Limache | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Concepcion |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 27 | 54 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 35 | 37 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 37 | 34 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 | 39 | 34 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 34 | 32 |
| 9 | Deportes Concepcion | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 32 |
| 10 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | 32 |
| 11 | La Serena | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 41 | 30 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 38 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 45 | 25 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 18 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad de Concepcion | Deportes Limache |
|---|---|---|
| Cobresal | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Huachipato | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Palestino | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Universidad de Chile | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Everton de Vina | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Deportes Concepcion | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportes Limache (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad de Concepcion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/10 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 03/09 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 25/08 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
1-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
Deportes Limache
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 15/09 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/09 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 03/09 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 22/08 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportes Limache win (39%). Probabilities: Universidad de Concepcion 35%, draw 26%, Deportes Limache 39%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Universidad de Concepcion 1.45 · Deportes Limache 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.