Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 08/11, 16:30

Prediction: Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido

Team pages: Audax Italiano · Coquimbo Unido

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Audax Italiano1.19

Coquimbo Unido1.23

1X2

34% 30% 36%

Audax Italiano Draw Coquimbo Unido

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Audax Italiano 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWDDL

Coquimbo Unido 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Audax Italiano 0–2–4 Coquimbo Unido (6 last)

Coquimbo Unido3-0Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano0-1Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido2-1Audax Italiano
Coquimbo Unido1-1Audax Italiano
Audax Italiano0-1Coquimbo Unido
Audax Italiano1-1Coquimbo Unido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Audax Italiano 1494 · Coquimbo Unido 1536

	Audax Italiano	Draw	Coquimbo Unido
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coquimbo Unido (rating 1494 vs 1536).
H2H favours Coquimbo Unido: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Audax Italiano	Coquimbo Unido
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 4.5	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.5	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.39 ★
2	2.15 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.59

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:53 +25’	3.20	3.20	2.15
13:17 +14’	3.00▼	3.20	2.30▲
23:34 +5’	2.70▼	3.10▼	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:13 +17’	2.65	3.34	2.59
23:16 +2’	2.68▲	3.38▲	2.62▲
08:54 +22’	2.70▲	3.39▲	2.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Audax Italiano 0–2–4 Coquimbo Unido

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Coquimbo Unido	3-0 HT 2-0	Audax Italiano
23/08/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	0-1 HT 0-0	Coquimbo Unido
30/03/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Coquimbo Unido	2-1 HT 1-0	Audax Italiano
24/08/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Coquimbo Unido	1-1 HT 0-1	Audax Italiano
28/03/24 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	0-1 HT 0-1	Coquimbo Unido
25/08/23 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	1-1 HT 1-0	Coquimbo Unido

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	26	18	4	4	57	29	58
2	Universidad de Chile	26	14	6	6	45	21	48
3	Universidad Catolica	26	14	4	8	53	37	46
4	Deportes Limache	26	12	4	10	48	37	40
5	Everton de Vina	26	11	7	8	43	33	40
6	Palestino	26	11	5	10	39	37	38
7	Huachipato	26	10	6	10	35	40	36
8	Coquimbo Unido	26	10	5	11	38	36	35
9	Deportes Concepcion	26	10	5	11	28	30	35
10	Nublense	26	9	8	9	30	39	35
11	La Serena	26	8	10	8	39	42	34
12	O'Higgins	26	9	4	13	30	39	31
13	Audax Italiano	26	7	9	10	28	35	30
14	Cobresal	26	7	6	13	38	48	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	26	6	5	15	19	47	23
16	Union La Calera	26	5	6	15	23	43	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Audax Italiano	Coquimbo Unido
Universidad Catolica	1-1 D	1-2 L
O'Higgins	1-0 W	0-0 D
Deportes Concepcion	1-0 W	1-1 D
Colo Colo	1-5 L	5-2 W
Union La Calera	0-0 D	1-0 W
Nublense	2-2 D	1-2 L
Universidad de Concepcion	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Audax Italiano (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Audax Italiano

WDDDLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
29/10	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	3	10	D
24/10	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-1	8	5	D
14/09	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
05/09	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
30/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	1-5	6	1	L
22/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
16/08	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
11/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
01/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Coquimbo Unido

DDDLWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
25/10	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
11/10	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	3-1	5-2	5	5	W
12/09	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-3	9	4	L
06/09	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-4	4	5	L
03/09	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
27/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
23/08	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
08/08	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	12	8	D
13/06	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Coquimbo Unido win (36%). Probabilities: Audax Italiano 34%, draw 30%, Coquimbo Unido 36%.

How many goals are expected in Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Audax Italiano 1.19 · Coquimbo Unido 1.23), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Audax Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.