Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 30/10, 23:00
Prediction: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera
Team pages: Coquimbo Unido · Union La Calera
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Coquimbo Unido1.65
Union La Calera0.81
1X2
Coquimbo Unido
Draw
Union La Calera
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Coquimbo Unido
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Union La Calera
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Coquimbo Unido
5–1
Union La Calera
(6 last)
- Coquimbo Unido0-1Union La Calera
- Union La Calera0-1Coquimbo Unido
- Union La Calera1-2Coquimbo Unido
- Coquimbo Unido2-0Union La Calera
- Union La Calera1-4Coquimbo Unido
- Coquimbo Unido2-1Union La Calera
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coquimbo Unido 1524 · Union La Calera 1465
| Coquimbo Unido | Draw | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coquimbo Unido (rating 1524 vs 1465).
- H2H favours Coquimbo Unido: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Coquimbo Unido | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.4 | 2.2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.5 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coquimbo Unido 5–0–1 Union La Calera
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Coquimbo Unido | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Union La Calera |
| 09/07/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Union La Calera | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 25/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 02/11/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Coquimbo Unido | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Union La Calera |
| 02/07/25 Chile Cup | Union La Calera | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 08/06/25 Chile Cup | Coquimbo Unido | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Union La Calera |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 55 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 20 | 48 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 51 | 36 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 37 | 37 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 40 | 35 |
| 8 | Nublense | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 38 | 35 |
| 9 | La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 39 | 42 | 33 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 36 | 32 |
| 11 | Deportes Concepcion | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 32 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 39 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 46 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 41 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 23 | 42 | 21 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Coquimbo Unido | Union La Calera |
|---|---|---|
| Nublense | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Colo Colo | 5-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Cobresal | 2-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Universidad Catolica | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Deportes Concepcion | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| La Serena | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| O'Higgins | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Deportes Limache | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Coquimbo Unido (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coquimbo Unido
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/10 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
3-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/09 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 27/08 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | La Serena Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/08 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Coquimbo Unido win (57%). Probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 57%, draw 25%, Union La Calera 18%.
How many goals are expected in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Coquimbo Unido 1.65 · Union La Calera 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.