Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 07/11, 19:00
Prediction: La Serena vs Palestino
Team pages: La Serena · Palestino
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
La Serena1.54
Palestino1.59
1X2
La Serena
Draw
Palestino
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
La Serena
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Palestino
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
La Serena
0–2–4
Palestino
(6 last)
- Palestino5-1La Serena
- La Serena0-3Palestino
- Palestino2-1La Serena
- Palestino5-0La Serena
- La Serena0-0Palestino
- Palestino3-3La Serena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · La Serena 1488 · Palestino 1544
| La Serena | Draw | Palestino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palestino (rating 1488 vs 1544).
- H2H favours Palestino: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| La Serena | Palestino | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.1 | 2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.5 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · La Serena 0–2–4 Palestino
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 5-1 HT 3-0 | La Serena |
| 29/11/25 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Palestino |
| 14/06/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 2-1 HT 0-0 | La Serena |
| 23/10/22 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 5-0 HT 2-0 | La Serena |
| 14/05/22 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Palestino |
| 25/10/21 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 3-3 HT 2-2 | La Serena |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 29 | 58 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 21 | 48 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 37 | 46 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 33 | 40 |
| 5 | Palestino | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 37 | 37 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 40 | 36 |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 38 | 36 | 35 |
| 9 | Nublense | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 30 | 39 | 35 |
| 10 | La Serena | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 39 | 42 | 34 |
| 11 | Deportes Concepcion | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 32 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 39 | 31 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 33 | 30 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 38 | 48 | 27 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 47 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 43 | 21 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | La Serena | Palestino |
|---|---|---|
| Huachipato | 0-0 D | 5-1 W |
| Everton de Vina | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Universidad de Chile | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Cobresal | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| O'Higgins | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Palestino (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
La Serena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 24/10 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Nublense Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 01/09 | Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
Palestino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 12/10 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/08 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 01/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in La Serena vs Palestino?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Palestino win (38%). Probabilities: La Serena 36%, draw 27%, Palestino 38%.
How many goals are expected in La Serena vs Palestino?
The model expects 3.12 goals (La Serena 1.54 · Palestino 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in La Serena vs Palestino?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.