Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 07/11, 21:30

Prediction: Everton de Vina vs Deportes Concepcion

Team pages: Everton de Vina · Deportes Concepcion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Everton de Vina1.69

Deportes Concepcion0.96

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Everton de Vina Draw Deportes Concepcion

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Everton de Vina 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWWLD

Deportes Concepcion 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWLDDL

Head-to-head

Everton de Vina 2–1–2 Deportes Concepcion (5 last)

Deportes Concepcion0-2Everton de Vina
Deportes Concepcion0-0Everton de Vina
Everton de Vina1-0Deportes Concepcion
Everton de Vina0-1Deportes Concepcion
Deportes Concepcion4-3Everton de Vina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Everton de Vina 1509 · Deportes Concepcion 1510

	Everton de Vina	Draw	Deportes Concepcion
Our model	53%	26%	20%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Everton de Vina	Deportes Concepcion
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.7	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 5.8	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.85 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.62
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:03 +10’	1.73	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:03 +12’	1.85	3.62	3.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Everton de Vina 2–1–2 Deportes Concepcion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Deportes Concepcion	0-2 HT 0-0	Everton de Vina
12/03/16 Chile Primera B	Deportes Concepcion	0-0 HT 0-0	Everton de Vina
11/10/15 Chile Primera B	Everton de Vina	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Concepcion
01/05/15 Chile Primera B	Everton de Vina	0-1 HT 0-1	Deportes Concepcion
07/12/14 Chile Primera B	Deportes Concepcion	4-3 HT 2-2	Everton de Vina

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	26	18	4	4	57	29	58
2	Universidad de Chile	26	14	6	6	45	21	48
3	Universidad Catolica	26	14	4	8	53	37	46
4	Everton de Vina	26	11	7	8	43	33	40
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	39	36	38
6	Deportes Limache	25	11	4	10	46	37	37
7	Huachipato	26	10	6	10	35	40	36
8	Coquimbo Unido	26	10	5	11	38	36	35
9	Nublense	26	9	8	9	30	39	35
10	La Serena	26	8	10	8	39	42	34
11	Deportes Concepcion	25	9	5	11	27	30	32
12	O'Higgins	26	9	4	13	30	39	31
13	Audax Italiano	25	7	9	9	28	33	30
14	Cobresal	26	7	6	13	38	48	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	26	6	5	15	19	47	23
16	Union La Calera	26	5	6	15	23	43	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Everton de Vina	Deportes Concepcion
Cobresal	2-2 D	2-0 W
La Serena	3-2 W	1-3 L
Nublense	3-1 W	1-0 W
Universidad Catolica	0-1 L	3-0 W
Universidad de Concepcion	3-1 W	1-0 W
Audax Italiano	1-1 D	0-1 L
Colo Colo	3-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Everton de Vina (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Everton de Vina

LWDWWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
26/10	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	1-4	8	6	L
11/10	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	3-2	8	8	W
12/09	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	3-1	2	6	W
05/09	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
29/08	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
25/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	3-1	3-1	9	7	W
16/08	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
08/08	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	3-1	4-1	7	6	W
01/08	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	2-2	3-4	7	3	L

Deportes Concepcion

WWWWDWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	1-3	3	7	L
11/10	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
13/09	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
05/09	Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
30/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
23/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
02/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-0	4	6	W
27/07	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Concepcion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Everton de Vina win (54%). Probabilities: Everton de Vina 54%, draw 26%, Deportes Concepcion 20%.

How many goals are expected in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Concepcion?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Everton de Vina 1.69 · Deportes Concepcion 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Concepcion?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.