Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 05/09, 02:30

Prediction: Deportes Concepcion vs Audax Italiano

Team pages: Deportes Concepcion · Audax Italiano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Deportes Concepcion1.34

Audax Italiano1.05

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Deportes Concepcion Draw Audax Italiano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Concepcion 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWWDW

Audax Italiano 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDDLWDDD

Head-to-head

Deportes Concepcion 0–1–2 Audax Italiano (3 last)

Audax Italiano3-0Deportes Concepcion
Audax Italiano2-1Deportes Concepcion
Deportes Concepcion0-0Audax Italiano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Concepcion 1573 · Audax Italiano 1546

	Deportes Concepcion	Draw	Audax Italiano
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Audax Italiano: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Concepcion	Audax Italiano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	1.1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.29
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.37 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +1’	2.15	3.25	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:22 +1’	2.18	3.26	3.33
02:23	2.20▲	3.29▲	3.37▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Concepcion 0–1–2 Audax Italiano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Audax Italiano	3-0 HT 3-0	Deportes Concepcion
08/05/25 Chile Cup	Audax Italiano	2-1 HT 1-0	Deportes Concepcion
06/04/25 Chile Cup	Deportes Concepcion	0-0 HT 0-0	Audax Italiano

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	20	16	1	3	42	20	49
2	Universidad de Chile	20	10	6	4	27	15	36
3	Universidad Catolica	20	10	3	7	43	29	33
4	Everton de Vina	21	9	6	6	34	23	33
5	Palestino	21	10	3	8	32	29	33
6	Nublense	20	8	8	4	26	24	32
7	Deportes Concepcion	21	9	3	9	24	24	30
8	Deportes Limache	20	8	3	9	38	34	27
9	Coquimbo Unido	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
10	La Serena	20	5	9	6	31	34	24
11	O'Higgins	20	7	3	10	24	31	24
12	Huachipato	20	7	3	10	29	39	24
13	Audax Italiano	20	5	7	8	23	26	22
14	Cobresal	21	6	3	12	31	39	21
15	Universidad de Concepcion	19	5	4	10	14	33	19
16	Union La Calera	20	3	5	12	17	37	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Concepcion	Audax Italiano
Nublense	1-0 W	2-2 D
Coquimbo Unido	1-1 D	0-3 L
Cobresal	2-0 W	2-1 W
Universidad de Concepcion	1-0 W	1-0 W
Deportes Limache	3-2 W	2-2 D
Universidad de Chile	1-2 L	1-2 L
Everton de Vina	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Concepcion (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Concepcion

LWLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
23/08	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
02/08	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	3-0	4	6	W
27/07	O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
14/06	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	3-2	7	1	W
30/05	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-2	1	10	L
24/05	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
18/05	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-2	4	3	L

Audax Italiano

DLWDDLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Union La Calera Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
16/08	Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
11/08	Nublense Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
01/08	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
26/07	Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
13/06	La Serena Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
01/06	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
23/05	Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
16/05	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-3	1	5	L
25/04	Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-2	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Concepcion win (43%). Probabilities: Deportes Concepcion 43%, draw 29%, Audax Italiano 28%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Deportes Concepcion 1.34 · Audax Italiano 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Concepcion vs Audax Italiano?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.