Football · USA USL League One · 08/10, 01:00

Prediction: FC Naples vs Richmond Kickers

Team pages: FC Naples · Richmond Kickers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

FC Naples1.9

Richmond Kickers1.07

1X2

56% 24% 20%

FC Naples Draw Richmond Kickers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Naples 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Richmond Kickers 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Naples 3–0 Richmond Kickers (3 last)

Richmond Kickers0-1FC Naples
Richmond Kickers1-2FC Naples
FC Naples2-1Richmond Kickers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Naples 1532 · Richmond Kickers 1438

	FC Naples	Draw	Richmond Kickers
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Naples (rating 1532 vs 1438).
H2H favours FC Naples: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Naples	Richmond Kickers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	10/10/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.62
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.97
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.46 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +3’	1.60	3.90	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +155’	1.62	3.97	4.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Naples 3–0–0 Richmond Kickers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Naples
03/08/25 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Naples
13/04/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-1 HT 2-1	Richmond Kickers

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	18	6	5	67	42	60
3	Forward Madison FC	29	15	7	7	50	27	52
4	AC Boise	29	14	7	8	45	39	49
5	One Knoxville SC	29	13	9	7	46	34	48
6	Spokane Velocity FC	27	14	5	8	41	36	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	29	14	4	11	50	40	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	28	10	9	9	42	36	39
9	Corpus Christi FC	28	9	9	10	32	40	36
10	FC Naples	28	10	4	14	32	44	34
11	Westchester SC	29	9	6	14	48	46	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39	43	33
13	Antelope Valley Alta	29	8	8	13	35	42	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43	53	31
15	New York Cosmos	28	7	4	17	36	56	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	28	6	5	17	30	52	23
17	Richmond Kickers	28	6	5	17	30	58	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Naples	Richmond Kickers
New York Cosmos	2-1 W	2-3 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-0 W	1-1 D
Fort Wayne FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
One Knoxville SC	0-0 D	3-2 W
Union Omaha	2-0 W	1-5 L
Westchester SC	2-3 L	2-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Naples (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Naples

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
27/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
20/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
12/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
27/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
16/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
06/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	8	W

Richmond Kickers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
27/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-2	2-3	5	9	L
20/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	3	8	L
17/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-5	2-5	8	4	L
13/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
30/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
17/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-3	1-5	1	4	L
06/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Naples vs Richmond Kickers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Naples win (56%). Probabilities: FC Naples 56%, draw 24%, Richmond Kickers 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Naples vs Richmond Kickers?

The model expects 2.97 goals (FC Naples 1.9 · Richmond Kickers 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Naples vs Richmond Kickers?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.