Football · USA USL League One · 18/10, 00:00

Prediction: Richmond Kickers vs Corpus Christi FC

Team pages: Richmond Kickers · Corpus Christi FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Richmond Kickers1.5

Corpus Christi FC1.5

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Richmond Kickers Draw Corpus Christi FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Richmond Kickers 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLLWLL

Corpus Christi FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Richmond Kickers 0–1 Corpus Christi FC (1 last)

Corpus Christi FC1-0Richmond Kickers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Richmond Kickers 1416 · Corpus Christi FC 1456

	Richmond Kickers	Draw	Corpus Christi FC
Our model	37%	27%	37%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corpus Christi FC (rating 1416 vs 1456).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Richmond Kickers	Corpus Christi FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.3	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.7	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	5.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.54
2	2.38 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.50 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +7’	2.45	3.40	2.38
14:52 +25’	2.40▼	3.50▲	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +24’	2.35	3.56	2.60
20:06 +36’	2.42▲	3.55▼	2.52▼
14:15 +61’	2.45▲	3.54▼	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Richmond Kickers 0–0–1 Corpus Christi FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 USA USL League One	Corpus Christi FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Richmond Kickers

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	30	19	6	5	70	42	63
2	Union Omaha	30	19	4	7	53	32	61
3	Forward Madison FC	30	15	7	8	52	30	52
4	AC Boise	30	15	7	8	47	40	52
5	One Knoxville SC	31	14	9	8	49	36	51
6	Spokane Velocity FC	29	15	5	9	46	40	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	30	12	9	9	46	37	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	30	10	6	14	51	48	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	10	6	13	42	45	36
12	Corpus Christi FC	30	9	9	12	33	44	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	30	8	9	13	37	44	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	7	10	13	44	55	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	30	7	6	17	36	57	27
16	New York Cosmos	29	7	4	18	36	59	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	6	5	19	32	63	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Richmond Kickers	Corpus Christi FC
FC Naples	0-2 L	0-1 L
New York Cosmos	2-3 L	0-2 L
Westchester SC	2-5 L	2-2 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-1 D	0-3 L
Fort Wayne FC	0-2 L	1-3 L
Forward Madison FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Richmond Kickers (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Richmond Kickers

DLLDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	2-1	2-3	8	6	L
08/10	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
04/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
27/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-2	2-3	5	9	L
20/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	3	8	L
17/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-5	2-5	8	4	L
13/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
30/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	4	D

Corpus Christi FC

WLDLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
08/10	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	8	7	L
04/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
27/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
16/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
13/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
06/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
23/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	11	5	D
20/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
16/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Richmond Kickers vs Corpus Christi FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Richmond Kickers win (37%). Probabilities: Richmond Kickers 37%, draw 26%, Corpus Christi FC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Richmond Kickers vs Corpus Christi FC?

The model expects 3 goals (Richmond Kickers 1.5 · Corpus Christi FC 1.5), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs Corpus Christi FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.