Football · USA USL League One · 18/10, 01:00

Prediction: Greenville Triumph SC vs Charlotte Independence

Team pages: Greenville Triumph SC · Charlotte Independence

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Greenville Triumph SC1.66

Charlotte Independence1.68

1X2

37% 25% 38%

Greenville Triumph SC Draw Charlotte Independence

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Greenville Triumph SC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLDW

Charlotte Independence 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWDWW

Head-to-head

Greenville Triumph SC 2–4 Charlotte Independence (6 last)

Charlotte Independence1-0Greenville Triumph SC
Charlotte Independence1-0Greenville Triumph SC
Charlotte Independence4-5Greenville Triumph SC
Charlotte Independence1-0Greenville Triumph SC
Greenville Triumph SC1-0Charlotte Independence
Greenville Triumph SC0-1Charlotte Independence

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Greenville Triumph SC 1430 · Charlotte Independence 1582

	Greenville Triumph SC	Draw	Charlotte Independence
Our model	37%	25%	38%
Market	37%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1430 vs 1582).
H2H favours Charlotte Independence: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Greenville Triumph SC	Charlotte Independence
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	2.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	2.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.70

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	2.00 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +10’	2.90	3.75	2.00
20:40 +4’	2.40▼	3.70▼	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +16’	2.50	3.51	2.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Greenville Triumph SC 2–0–4 Charlotte Independence

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	1-0 HT 0-0	Greenville Triumph SC
25/06/26 USA USL Cup	Charlotte Independence	1-0 HT 0-0	Greenville Triumph SC
10/08/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	4-5 HT 2-2	Greenville Triumph SC
16/06/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	1-0 HT 1-0	Greenville Triumph SC
06/04/25 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Charlotte Independence
31/08/24 USA USL Cup	Greenville Triumph SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Charlotte Independence

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	30	19	6	5	70	42	63
2	Union Omaha	30	19	4	7	53	32	61
3	Forward Madison FC	30	15	7	8	52	30	52
4	AC Boise	30	15	7	8	47	40	52
5	One Knoxville SC	31	14	9	8	49	36	51
6	Spokane Velocity FC	29	15	5	9	46	40	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	30	12	9	9	46	37	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	30	10	6	14	51	48	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	10	6	13	42	45	36
12	Corpus Christi FC	30	9	9	12	33	44	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	30	8	9	13	37	44	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	7	10	13	44	55	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	30	7	6	17	36	57	27
16	New York Cosmos	29	7	4	18	36	59	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	6	5	19	32	63	23

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Greenville Triumph SC	Charlotte Independence
Antelope Valley Alta	2-2 D	5-0 W
AC Boise	0-1 L	1-1 D
Union Omaha	1-3 L	0-2 L
Sarasota Paradise	0-6 L	3-2 W
Fort Wayne FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-1	4-3	3	3	W
11/10	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
03/10	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
27/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
20/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-4	0-6	1	2	L
16/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
13/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-2	1-3	9	7	L
06/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
30/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
23/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-2	5	5	L

Charlotte Independence

DWWLWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
04/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	6	8	W
26/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
17/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	4-2	5-4	4	7	W
06/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	4-0	5-0	3	4	W
23/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Greenville Triumph SC vs Charlotte Independence?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Charlotte Independence win (38%). Probabilities: Greenville Triumph SC 37%, draw 25%, Charlotte Independence 38%.

How many goals are expected in Greenville Triumph SC vs Charlotte Independence?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Greenville Triumph SC 1.66 · Charlotte Independence 1.68), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Greenville Triumph SC vs Charlotte Independence?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.