Football · USA USL League One · 17/10, 22:00

Prediction: New York Cosmos vs One Knoxville SC

Team pages: New York Cosmos · One Knoxville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

New York Cosmos1.44

One Knoxville SC1.66

1X2

33% 25% 42%

New York Cosmos Draw One Knoxville SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

New York Cosmos 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLLWLL

One Knoxville SC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLDLWL

Head-to-head

New York Cosmos 0–1 One Knoxville SC (1 last)

One Knoxville SC3-1New York Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Cosmos 1473 · One Knoxville SC 1506

	New York Cosmos	Draw	One Knoxville SC
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Cosmos	One Knoxville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.5	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.60

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.81
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.05 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.21 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:55 +14’	2.90	3.60	2.05
15:06 +8’	2.75▼	3.60	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +53’	2.81	3.52	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Cosmos 0–0–1 One Knoxville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	3-1 HT 2-0	New York Cosmos

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	30	19	6	5	70	42	63
2	Union Omaha	30	19	4	7	53	32	61
3	Forward Madison FC	30	15	7	8	52	30	52
4	AC Boise	30	15	7	8	47	40	52
5	One Knoxville SC	31	14	9	8	49	36	51
6	Spokane Velocity FC	29	15	5	9	46	40	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	30	12	9	9	46	37	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	30	10	6	14	51	48	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	10	6	13	42	45	36
12	Corpus Christi FC	30	9	9	12	33	44	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	30	8	9	13	37	44	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	7	10	13	44	55	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	30	7	6	17	36	57	27
16	New York Cosmos	29	7	4	18	36	59	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	6	5	19	32	63	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Cosmos	One Knoxville SC
FC Naples	1-2 L	0-0 D
Richmond Kickers	3-2 W	2-3 L
Westchester SC	1-2 L	0-0 D
AC Boise	1-2 L	2-2 D
Fort Wayne FC	4-2 W	3-2 W
Union Omaha	1-1 D	1-2 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-3 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: One Knoxville SC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Cosmos

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	0-3	3	2	L
04/10	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	3-2	6	9	W
20/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
12/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	11	3	L
06/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-2	5	7	W
03/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
30/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
20/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	7	W

One Knoxville SC

DDWDWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
08/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
04/10	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-2	2-3	4	3	L
28/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
20/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
17/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	3-2	12	6	W
12/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
06/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
03/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
23/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Cosmos vs One Knoxville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an One Knoxville SC win (42%). Probabilities: New York Cosmos 33%, draw 25%, One Knoxville SC 42%.

How many goals are expected in New York Cosmos vs One Knoxville SC?

The model expects 3.1 goals (New York Cosmos 1.44 · One Knoxville SC 1.66), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Cosmos vs One Knoxville SC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.