Football · USA USL League One · 18/10, 00:00

Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Team pages: Forward Madison FC · Portland Hearts of Pine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Forward Madison FC1.95

Portland Hearts of Pine0.97

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Forward Madison FC Draw Portland Hearts of Pine

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Forward Madison FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Portland Hearts of Pine 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Forward Madison FC 2–1–0 Portland Hearts of Pine (3 last)

Portland Hearts of Pine1-2Forward Madison FC
Portland Hearts of Pine1-3Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC1-1Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1511 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1457

	Forward Madison FC	Draw	Portland Hearts of Pine
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1511 vs 1457).
H2H favours Forward Madison FC: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forward Madison FC	Portland Hearts of Pine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.2	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.51
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.29 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.01

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +8’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +68’	1.51	4.29	5.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 2–1–0 Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	1-2 HT 0-1	Forward Madison FC
04/10/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	1-3 HT 0-2	Forward Madison FC
25/05/25 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	30	19	6	5	70	42	63
2	Union Omaha	30	19	4	7	53	32	61
3	Forward Madison FC	30	15	7	8	52	30	52
4	AC Boise	30	15	7	8	47	40	52
5	One Knoxville SC	31	14	9	8	49	36	51
6	Spokane Velocity FC	29	15	5	9	46	40	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	30	12	9	9	46	37	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	30	10	6	14	51	48	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	10	6	13	42	45	36
12	Corpus Christi FC	30	9	9	12	33	44	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	30	8	9	13	37	44	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	7	10	13	44	55	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	30	7	6	17	36	57	27
16	New York Cosmos	29	7	4	18	36	59	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	6	5	19	32	63	23

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forward Madison FC	Portland Hearts of Pine
Westchester SC	2-3 L	2-1 W
Fort Wayne FC	0-0 D	1-4 L
Spokane Velocity FC	0-1 L	3-3 D
Antelope Valley Alta	3-0 W	1-0 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sarasota Paradise	1-1 D	1-4 L
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Richmond Kickers	2-1 W	1-1 D
Charlotte Independence	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forward Madison FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	2-3	3	5	L
04/10	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	12	4	D
27/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
20/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	6	12	W
17/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
03/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
23/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D

Portland Hearts of Pine

DDLLWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
04/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-3	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-3	1-4	1	7	L
20/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
14/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
07/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
03/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	1	4	L
30/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forward Madison FC win (59%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 59%, draw 23%, Portland Hearts of Pine 18%.

How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Forward Madison FC 1.95 · Portland Hearts of Pine 0.97), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.