Football · USA USL League One · 11/10, 02:30

Prediction: Corpus Christi FC vs FC Naples

Team pages: Corpus Christi FC · FC Naples

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Corpus Christi FC1.45

FC Naples1.22

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Corpus Christi FC Draw FC Naples

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Corpus Christi FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Naples 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Corpus Christi FC 0–1–0 FC Naples (1 last)

FC Naples2-2Corpus Christi FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corpus Christi FC 1478 · FC Naples 1529

	Corpus Christi FC	Draw	FC Naples
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Naples (rating 1478 vs 1529).
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corpus Christi FC	FC Naples
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.3	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.18
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.02 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:47 +5’	2.25	3.50	2.60
06:03 +6’	2.10▼	3.50	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +131’	2.18	3.30	3.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Corpus Christi FC 0–1–0 FC Naples

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-2 HT 1-1	Corpus Christi FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	18	6	5	67	42	60
3	Forward Madison FC	29	15	7	7	50	27	52
4	One Knoxville SC	30	14	9	7	49	34	51
5	AC Boise	29	14	7	8	45	39	49
6	Spokane Velocity FC	27	14	5	8	41	36	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	29	11	9	9	45	37	42
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34	44	37
10	Corpus Christi FC	29	9	9	11	33	43	36
11	Westchester SC	29	9	6	14	48	46	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39	43	33
13	Antelope Valley Alta	29	8	8	13	35	42	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43	53	31
15	New York Cosmos	28	7	4	17	36	56	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	28	6	5	17	30	52	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	6	5	18	30	60	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corpus Christi FC	FC Naples
Fort Wayne FC	1-3 L	2-2 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-3 L	1-0 W
AC Boise	2-1 W	0-2 L
Greenville Triumph SC	1-0 W	0-4 L
Union Omaha	1-2 L	2-0 W
Westchester SC	2-2 D	2-3 L
New York Cosmos	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Naples (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Corpus Christi FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	8	7	L
04/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
27/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
16/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	5	10	W
13/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
06/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
23/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	11	5	D
20/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
16/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	2	5	W
09/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	6	7	W

FC Naples

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
27/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
20/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
12/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
27/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
16/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-3	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corpus Christi FC vs FC Naples?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corpus Christi FC win (42%). Probabilities: Corpus Christi FC 42%, draw 27%, FC Naples 31%.

How many goals are expected in Corpus Christi FC vs FC Naples?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Corpus Christi FC 1.45 · FC Naples 1.22), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Corpus Christi FC vs FC Naples?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.