Football · USA USL League One · 18/10, 01:30

Prediction: Fort Wayne FC vs Sarasota Paradise

Team pages: Fort Wayne FC · Sarasota Paradise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Fort Wayne FC2.06

Sarasota Paradise1.37

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Fort Wayne FC Draw Sarasota Paradise

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Fort Wayne FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDDDWW

Sarasota Paradise 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Fort Wayne FC 0–1–0 Sarasota Paradise (1 last)

Sarasota Paradise2-2Fort Wayne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fort Wayne FC 1545 · Sarasota Paradise 1538

	Fort Wayne FC	Draw	Sarasota Paradise
Our model	52%	23%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fort Wayne FC	Sarasota Paradise
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.9	2.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.74
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.77
2	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.98 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +12’	1.73	3.70	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +60’	2.08	3.47	3.10
21:33 +93’	1.85▼	3.63▲	3.65▲
12:06 +17’	1.74▼	3.77▲	3.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fort Wayne FC 0–1–0 Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 USA USL League One	Sarasota Paradise	2-2 HT 1-2	Fort Wayne FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	30	19	6	5	70	42	63
2	Union Omaha	30	19	4	7	53	32	61
3	Forward Madison FC	30	15	7	8	52	30	52
4	AC Boise	30	15	7	8	47	40	52
5	One Knoxville SC	31	14	9	8	49	36	51
6	Spokane Velocity FC	29	15	5	9	46	40	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	30	12	9	9	46	37	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	30	10	6	14	51	48	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	10	6	13	42	45	36
12	Corpus Christi FC	30	9	9	12	33	44	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	30	8	9	13	37	44	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	7	10	13	44	55	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	30	7	6	17	36	57	27
16	New York Cosmos	29	7	4	18	36	59	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	6	5	19	32	63	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fort Wayne FC	Sarasota Paradise
Union Omaha	1-0 W	1-1 D
Forward Madison FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Charlotte Independence	1-1 D	2-3 L
Greenville Triumph SC	3-1 W	6-0 W
New York Cosmos	2-4 L	2-1 W
Richmond Kickers	2-0 W	3-2 W
Portland Hearts of Pine	4-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fort Wayne FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fort Wayne FC

WWLWLDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/10	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
04/10	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
26/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
20/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	7	8	D
17/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
13/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	7	W
06/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-2	2-4	9	7	L
03/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	1	6	W

Sarasota Paradise

LWDWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-2	3-2	6	6	W
04/10	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	3	8	L
26/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	3-1	4-1	8	7	W
20/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	4-0	6-0	7	2	W
13/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fort Wayne FC vs Sarasota Paradise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fort Wayne FC win (52%). Probabilities: Fort Wayne FC 52%, draw 24%, Sarasota Paradise 24%.

How many goals are expected in Fort Wayne FC vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Fort Wayne FC 2.06 · Sarasota Paradise 1.37), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fort Wayne FC vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.