Football · USA USL League One · 18/10, 03:00

Prediction: Spokane Velocity FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Team pages: Spokane Velocity FC · Chattanooga Red Wolves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Spokane Velocity FC1.72

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.29

1X2

46% 26% 27%

Spokane Velocity FC Draw Chattanooga Red Wolves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Spokane Velocity FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWWDWL

Chattanooga Red Wolves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDLLWL

Head-to-head

Spokane Velocity FC 3–2 Chattanooga Red Wolves (5 last)

Chattanooga Red Wolves0-1Spokane Velocity FC
Spokane Velocity FC1-2Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves3-0Spokane Velocity FC
Chattanooga Red Wolves0-1Spokane Velocity FC
Spokane Velocity FC2-1Chattanooga Red Wolves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spokane Velocity FC 1533 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1487

	Spokane Velocity FC	Draw	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Our model	47%	26%	28%
Market	46%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spokane Velocity FC (rating 1533 vs 1487).
H2H favours Spokane Velocity FC: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spokane Velocity FC	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.6	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.49
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.53 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +13’	1.95	3.40	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +27’	1.92	3.48	3.53
10:27 +3’	1.91▼	3.49▲	3.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Spokane Velocity FC 3–0–2 Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/10/26 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 HT 0-0	Spokane Velocity FC
22/09/25 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Chattanooga Red Wolves
20/07/25 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-0 HT 2-0	Spokane Velocity FC
08/08/24 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 HT 0-0	Spokane Velocity FC
07/07/24 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Chattanooga Red Wolves

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	30	19	6	5	70	42	63
2	Union Omaha	30	19	4	7	53	32	61
3	Forward Madison FC	30	15	7	8	52	30	52
4	AC Boise	30	15	7	8	47	40	52
5	One Knoxville SC	31	14	9	8	49	36	51
6	Spokane Velocity FC	29	15	5	9	46	40	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	30	12	9	9	46	37	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	30	10	6	14	51	48	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	10	6	13	42	45	36
12	Corpus Christi FC	30	9	9	12	33	44	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	30	8	9	13	37	44	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	7	10	13	44	55	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	30	7	6	17	36	57	27
16	New York Cosmos	29	7	4	18	36	59	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	6	5	19	32	63	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spokane Velocity FC	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Greenville Triumph SC	3-4 L	3-1 W
One Knoxville SC	2-0 W	0-3 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	3-3 D	1-1 D
Forward Madison FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
AC Boise	2-2 D	2-3 L
Westchester SC	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spokane Velocity FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spokane Velocity FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-2	3-4	2	3	L
11/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
04/10	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	3-0	3-3	2	5	D
01/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
21/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	2	3	D
16/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
06/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
23/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	2-1	8	5	W

Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
04/10	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
01/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
27/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	11	10	L
20/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
17/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
13/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
06/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	1	2	W
03/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
30/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spokane Velocity FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spokane Velocity FC win (46%). Probabilities: Spokane Velocity FC 46%, draw 26%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 27%.

How many goals are expected in Spokane Velocity FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Spokane Velocity FC 1.72 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.29), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spokane Velocity FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.