Football · USA USL League One · 10/10, 23:00
Prediction: Union Omaha vs Fort Wayne FC
Team pages: Union Omaha · Fort Wayne FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.5Total
Union Omaha2.19
Fort Wayne FC1.31
1X2
Union Omaha
Draw
Fort Wayne FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Omaha
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Fort Wayne FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Omaha
2–0
Fort Wayne FC
(2 last)
- Fort Wayne FC0-2Union Omaha
- Union Omaha4-2Fort Wayne FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Omaha 1596 · Fort Wayne FC 1489
| Union Omaha | Draw | Fort Wayne FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Omaha (rating 1596 vs 1489).
- H2H favours Union Omaha: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Omaha | Fort Wayne FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 7.4 | 2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.5 | 5.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Omaha 2–0–0 Fort Wayne FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 USA USL League One | Fort Wayne FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Union Omaha |
| 07/06/26 USA USL Cup | Union Omaha | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Fort Wayne FC |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 31 | 61 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 67 | 42 | 60 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | One Knoxville SC | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 34 | 51 |
| 5 | AC Boise | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 39 | 49 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity FC | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41 | 36 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 43 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 42 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 44 | 37 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 43 | 36 |
| 11 | Westchester SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 48 | 46 | 33 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 39 | 43 | 33 |
| 13 | Antelope Valley Alta | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 43 | 53 | 31 |
| 15 | New York Cosmos | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 36 | 56 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph SC | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 52 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 30 | 60 | 23 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Omaha | Fort Wayne FC |
|---|---|---|
| Greenville Triumph SC | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| One Knoxville SC | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Corpus Christi FC | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Charlotte Independence | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| New York Cosmos | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| FC Naples | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Richmond Kickers | 5-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Omaha (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Omaha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/09 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 27/08 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 16 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 17/08 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
3-1 | 5-1 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Fort Wayne FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 17/09 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
0-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 03/09 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Omaha vs Fort Wayne FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Omaha win (56%). Probabilities: Union Omaha 56%, draw 22%, Fort Wayne FC 21%.
How many goals are expected in Union Omaha vs Fort Wayne FC?
The model expects 3.5 goals (Union Omaha 2.19 · Fort Wayne FC 1.31), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Omaha vs Fort Wayne FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.