Football · USA USL League One · 04/10, 00:00

Prediction: Richmond Kickers vs One Knoxville SC

Team pages: Richmond Kickers · One Knoxville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Richmond Kickers1.08

One Knoxville SC1.8

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Richmond Kickers Draw One Knoxville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Richmond Kickers 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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One Knoxville SC 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Richmond Kickers 3–1–2 One Knoxville SC (6 last)

One Knoxville SC1-0Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers2-1One Knoxville SC
Richmond Kickers1-0One Knoxville SC
One Knoxville SC2-0Richmond Kickers
One Knoxville SC1-2Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers1-1One Knoxville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Richmond Kickers 1438 · One Knoxville SC 1522

	Richmond Kickers	Draw	One Knoxville SC
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours One Knoxville SC (rating 1438 vs 1522).
H2H favours Richmond Kickers: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Richmond Kickers	One Knoxville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.3	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.6	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/0/80%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.8	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.80

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.44 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.93
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +27’	4.00	3.80	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:54 +59’	4.12	3.83	1.70
22:01 +20’	4.21▲	3.90▲	1.71▲
23:47 +1’	4.44▲	3.93▲	1.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Richmond Kickers 3–1–2 One Knoxville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Richmond Kickers
05/10/25 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	2-1 HT 2-1	One Knoxville SC
24/08/25 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	1-0 HT 1-0	One Knoxville SC
21/08/25 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	2-0 HT 1-0	Richmond Kickers
02/06/24 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-2 HT 0-2	Richmond Kickers
04/05/24 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	1-1 HT 0-1	One Knoxville SC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	28	17	6	5	64	40	57
3	Forward Madison FC	28	15	6	7	50	27	51
4	One Knoxville SC	28	13	9	6	44	31	48
5	Spokane Velocity FC	26	14	4	8	38	33	46
6	AC Boise	28	13	7	8	44	39	46
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	28	13	4	11	47	40	43
8	Fort Wayne FC	27	10	8	9	42	36	38
9	Corpus Christi FC	27	9	9	9	32	37	36
10	Sarasota Paradise	27	9	6	12	37	40	33
11	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
12	FC Naples	27	9	4	14	30	43	31
13	Westchester SC	28	8	6	14	46	45	30
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	7	9	12	40	50	30
15	New York Cosmos	27	7	4	16	35	54	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	27	6	5	16	30	51	23
17	Richmond Kickers	27	5	5	17	27	56	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Richmond Kickers	One Knoxville SC
Westchester SC	2-5 L	0-0 D
Fort Wayne FC	0-2 L	3-2 W
Forward Madison FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Portland Hearts of Pine	1-1 D	1-1 D
Union Omaha	1-5 L	1-2 L
Antelope Valley Alta	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: One Knoxville SC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Richmond Kickers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-2	2-3	5	9	L
20/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	3	8	L
17/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-5	2-5	8	4	L
13/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
30/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
17/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-3	1-5	1	4	L
06/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	6	8	W

One Knoxville SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
20/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
17/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	3-2	12	6	W
12/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
06/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
03/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
23/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	1	3	D
20/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
16/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Richmond Kickers vs One Knoxville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an One Knoxville SC win (54%). Probabilities: Richmond Kickers 22%, draw 24%, One Knoxville SC 54%.

How many goals are expected in Richmond Kickers vs One Knoxville SC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Richmond Kickers 1.08 · One Knoxville SC 1.8), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs One Knoxville SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.