Football · USA USL League One · 11/10, 01:30

Prediction: Sarasota Paradise vs Richmond Kickers

Team pages: Sarasota Paradise · Richmond Kickers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Sarasota Paradise2.29

Richmond Kickers1.21

1X2

61% 21% 18%

Sarasota Paradise Draw Richmond Kickers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarasota Paradise 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDDWWL

Richmond Kickers 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Sarasota Paradise 0–1–0 Richmond Kickers (1 last)

Richmond Kickers0-0Sarasota Paradise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarasota Paradise 1525 · Richmond Kickers 1435

	Sarasota Paradise	Draw	Richmond Kickers
Our model	61%	21%	18%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarasota Paradise (rating 1525 vs 1435).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarasota Paradise	Richmond Kickers
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.48▼	Bet365 1.48
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.44 ★
2	4.33 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.21

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:36 +13’	1.57	4.10	4.33
11:04 +7’	1.48▼	4.20▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:25 +24’	1.46	4.51	5.35
02:26 +55’	1.48▲	4.44▼	5.21▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarasota Paradise 0–1–0 Richmond Kickers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarasota Paradise

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	18	6	5	67	42	60
3	Forward Madison FC	29	15	7	7	50	27	52
4	One Knoxville SC	30	14	9	7	49	34	51
5	AC Boise	29	14	7	8	45	39	49
6	Spokane Velocity FC	27	14	5	8	41	36	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	29	11	9	9	45	37	42
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34	44	37
10	Corpus Christi FC	29	9	9	11	33	43	36
11	Westchester SC	29	9	6	14	48	46	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39	43	33
13	Antelope Valley Alta	29	8	8	13	35	42	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43	53	31
15	New York Cosmos	28	7	4	17	36	56	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	28	6	5	17	30	52	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	6	5	18	30	60	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarasota Paradise	Richmond Kickers
Charlotte Independence	2-3 L	1-2 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	4-1 W	1-1 D
Forward Madison FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
New York Cosmos	2-1 W	2-3 L
Union Omaha	1-1 D	1-5 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-2 W	1-1 D
One Knoxville SC	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sarasota Paradise (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	3	8	L
26/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	3-1	4-1	8	7	W
20/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	4-0	6-0	7	2	W
13/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L

Richmond Kickers

LDLLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
04/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
27/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-2	2-3	5	9	L
20/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	3	8	L
17/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-5	2-5	8	4	L
13/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
30/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
17/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-3	1-5	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarasota Paradise vs Richmond Kickers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarasota Paradise win (61%). Probabilities: Sarasota Paradise 61%, draw 21%, Richmond Kickers 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sarasota Paradise vs Richmond Kickers?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Sarasota Paradise 2.29 · Richmond Kickers 1.21), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarasota Paradise vs Richmond Kickers?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.