Football · USA USL League One · 11/10, 01:00

Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs New York Cosmos

Team pages: Charlotte Independence · New York Cosmos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

Charlotte Independence2.52

New York Cosmos1.39

1X2

61% 20% 19%

Charlotte Independence Draw New York Cosmos

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte Independence 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDWDW

New York Cosmos 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWLLWL

Head-to-head

Charlotte Independence 0–1 New York Cosmos (1 last)

New York Cosmos3-2Charlotte Independence

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1551 · New York Cosmos 1507

	Charlotte Independence	Draw	New York Cosmos
Our model	61%	20%	19%
Market	61%	20%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1551 vs 1507).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte Independence	New York Cosmos
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.48▲	Pinn 1.57 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.53
2	5.25 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:34 +9’	1.44	4.50	5.25
10:44 +26’	1.48▲	4.50	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:42 +62’	1.45	4.89	5.08
21:02 +160’	1.45▲	4.86▼	5.03▼
13:43 +79’	1.57▲	4.53▼	4.23▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 0–0–1 New York Cosmos

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 USA USL League One	New York Cosmos	3-2 HT 2-2	Charlotte Independence

Standings · USA USL League One

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	18	6	5	67	42	60
3	Forward Madison FC	29	15	7	7	50	27	52
4	One Knoxville SC	30	14	9	7	49	34	51
5	AC Boise	29	14	7	8	45	39	49
6	Spokane Velocity FC	27	14	5	8	41	36	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	29	11	9	9	45	37	42
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34	44	37
10	Corpus Christi FC	29	9	9	11	33	43	36
11	Westchester SC	29	9	6	14	48	46	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39	43	33
13	Antelope Valley Alta	29	8	8	13	35	42	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43	53	31
15	New York Cosmos	28	7	4	17	36	56	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	28	6	5	17	30	52	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	6	5	18	30	60	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte Independence	New York Cosmos
Sarasota Paradise	3-2 W	1-2 L
Fort Wayne FC	1-1 D	4-2 W
Richmond Kickers	2-1 W	3-2 W
AC Boise	1-1 D	1-2 L
Westchester SC	5-4 W	1-2 L
Union Omaha	0-2 L	1-1 D
Antelope Valley Alta	5-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlotte Independence

WDWWLWDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	6	8	W
26/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
17/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	4-2	5-4	4	7	W
06/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	4-0	5-0	3	4	W
23/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	3-0	3-1	4	7	W

New York Cosmos

WWDDLWLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	3-2	6	9	W
20/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
12/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	11	3	L
06/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-2	5	7	W
03/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
30/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
20/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
16/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs New York Cosmos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (61%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 61%, draw 20%, New York Cosmos 19%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs New York Cosmos?

The model expects 3.91 goals (Charlotte Independence 2.52 · New York Cosmos 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs New York Cosmos?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.