Football · USA USL League One · 10/10, 23:00

Prediction: Portland Hearts of Pine vs AC Boise

Team pages: Portland Hearts of Pine · AC Boise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Portland Hearts of Pine1.27

AC Boise1.82

1X2

26% 24% 50%

Portland Hearts of Pine Draw AC Boise

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Hearts of Pine 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWWDLD

AC Boise 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWDDLW

Head-to-head

Portland Hearts of Pine 0–1 AC Boise (1 last)

AC Boise2-1Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Hearts of Pine 1447 · AC Boise 1554

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Draw	AC Boise
Our model	26%	25%	49%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Boise (rating 1447 vs 1554).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Hearts of Pine	AC Boise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.80

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.43
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +15’	3.40	3.80	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +11’	3.51	3.83	1.83
23:03 +35’	3.42▼	3.79▼	1.86▲
12:40 +134’	3.43▲	3.73▼	1.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Hearts of Pine 0–0–1 AC Boise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 USA USL League One	AC Boise	2-1 HT 0-0	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	18	6	5	67	42	60
3	Forward Madison FC	29	15	7	7	50	27	52
4	One Knoxville SC	30	14	9	7	49	34	51
5	AC Boise	29	14	7	8	45	39	49
6	Spokane Velocity FC	27	14	5	8	41	36	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	29	11	9	9	45	37	42
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34	44	37
10	Corpus Christi FC	29	9	9	11	33	43	36
11	Westchester SC	29	9	6	14	48	46	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39	43	33
13	Antelope Valley Alta	29	8	8	13	35	42	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	7	10	12	43	53	31
15	New York Cosmos	28	7	4	17	36	56	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	28	6	5	17	30	52	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	6	5	18	30	60	23

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Hearts of Pine	AC Boise
Spokane Velocity FC	3-3 D	2-2 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-1 D	3-2 W
Charlotte Independence	2-3 L	1-1 D
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Forward Madison FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AC Boise (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Hearts of Pine

LDDLLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-3	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-3	1-4	1	7	L
20/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
14/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
07/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
03/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	1	4	L
30/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	7	L

AC Boise

DWDWWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
27/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
21/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
17/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
12/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
23/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
09/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
02/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	12	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Hearts of Pine vs AC Boise?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Boise win (50%). Probabilities: Portland Hearts of Pine 26%, draw 24%, AC Boise 50%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Hearts of Pine vs AC Boise?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Portland Hearts of Pine 1.27 · AC Boise 1.82), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs AC Boise?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.